jonesrj

jonesrj

A clear pattern is showing -- at least for the two previous recessions -- when looking at the 3-month yield on monthly chart. The long stochastic has given strong indication twice before and is signaling imminent recession again. We'll see how it plays out, but I am more convinced than ever recession is very near and may have already begun.

jonesrj

Expect oil to test broken trendline resistance and fail around $72. Can short from there to convergence of lower trendline support and price structure around $60. Longer term it looks like oil is heading for a trading range.

jonesrj

Spread is currently at 30 basis points, the lowest it has been since 2005 and 1999. Both times a major recession followed. Exact timing for the bottoming of the yield spread and the S&P500 peak can vary. A recession is on the way, but until the yield spread bottoms, it will pay to stay long the market.

jonesrj

Sold USDJPY at 110.50 with a 30 pip stop loss and target profit of 240 pips. 110.50 looks like a strong resistance level. Stochastic crossover on 1h chart confirms bearish price action.

jonesrj

Expect a drop in T Mobile.

jonesrj

MCD short setup is working nicely. Sell the pullbacks.

jonesrj

Long the USD in the 96.50 to 95.50 range on bullish action.

jonesrj

First profit level is near $51.25 and next is near $53.70. Stop loss near $46.25. Enter on small timeframe price action.

jonesrj

I am looking for oil to pull back to near $50, looking for a short entry near $53.

jonesrj

Buy the breakout above $135.

jonesrj

Copper looks to be near a nice entry point with two pretty clear upside targets near $2.90 and $3.25

jonesrj

IWM is currently stuck in a trading range 133.50 to 138. A close below 133 would likely be followed by a move lower to support at 130 in the short term. A close above the range would indicate another leg up.

jonesrj

The dollar is very near a key support level which was tested and held in December.

jonesrj Updated 

A period of consolidation after the trend reversal in March 2016 is ready for a breakout. Current view is neutral on oil but a breakout is coming soon and could lead to trading opportunities.

jonesrj

The long term view of JPM seems like it is poised for a short. I don't have the guts to put on a big short here, but I'm not buying yet either. Economic policy expectations seems to favor accelerated interest rate increases which should be a positive for banks.

jonesrj

IBB has traded into a potential reversal zone and I am watching the 1h chart for reversal candles somewhere between 270 and 264. I will be ready to take a long position then.

jonesrj

AAPL broke the uptrend support, then failed the retest.

jonesrj

The uptrend line was broken at the end of August and is now retesting that broken trendline.... I would short RGR here with a stop loss of $67 and first profit level near $55.