kShah33

kShah33

short term bullish, late summer / autum bearish. expecting a run to 10549-106 region before a decisive move, possibly to the low 102 region.

kShah33

GJ might have took out the 30M entry and also on 1D charts looking sketchy but on the W chart the RSI is posting divergence when u look at the 23 Jan 24 equal highs to today im looking for a reversal of the 1D candle within 2-3 lengths to validate the W short.

kShah33

entry on yesterdays higher TF trade targeting 183/100 zone

kShah33

HIGHER time frame levels 1W to 1D short towards 183 as T1 potential for 181, as risk off comes down in globally for ¥ strength & GBP starts pricing all that wrong, multi month trade

kShah33

forget the uptrend parallel. the best area of no mans land was the blue rectangle, 1D rejecting close below it, 30M rally above came back for restest, buy above retest candle close, T1 we be at close of shooting star. 11 pip T1 with 11 pip SL. if only i rejected the noise & had traded the setup :-)

kShah33

FUNDAMENTALs:- as strong US data disappoints USD bears expect gold to drop. TECHNICALS:- a break below 2000/10 area targets 1930/20 between april/august 24 based on bar counts between last lows, a resurregent USD could target 1820 area by late 24 onwards

kShah33

USD strength to continue as safe haven & relative performence provide strength against weak macro & energy dependency of euro zone.

kShah33

short cable on trend resumption. pull back to between 12220 trend resistance to 12250 FIB0.23 resistance. target 11930 stops above 12400. RSI to act in confluence, turn down around 40 level for validation. THEME expect UK macro data to disappoint contract to US data showing relative strength.

kShah33

USD / GBP take advantage of the recent pull back for a short trade into us jobs report. this is inline with my long USD theme since mid feb, find posts under username SEMISHAH

kShah33

finally JAY admits its not all in hand, another strong number on friday will get investord back in the 3Q 2022 mindset that Fed is behind, DIXY BULL, expect nasdaq to out perform DJI for 2H of 2023 after the initial jerk movement.

kShah33

when you hit 3 trades in a row, it feel like jesse livemore !! seriously tho middle long trade was based on DiXY strength hence Yen weakness, the last was based on DiXY overbought breather & more imp Sunak’s monday meeting for Ni protocol reforms. worked better than i expected in target & time range. boom boom. expecting it to top around 166.40/70 for consolidation.

kShah33

mix of technical pattern & over bought USDXY, levels amendable dependant on US inflationary data pushing towards bottom of H&S pattern AFTER warmer weather & over bought USDX push euro for slight recovery.

kShah33

long term support line, with pre covid boost accounted for, 101 ideal buying opportunity, with 85 as a possible swing Low, investment levels, not day trade, 35% - 80% upside 3 year projection when expected layoffs, cost cutting & lease of excessive ware house space have been implemented & benefits materialised.

kShah33

market hitting resistance level 1 around 30100 with a strong level around 30350/450 on a longer downtrend, good places to short market for swing low

kShah33

long term down trend coming arnd 14900s short term under 13000s support 10950s & than 10750s. watch for UK PM comments & Chancellor resignation along next 2 / 4 days & spread on 30 Y UK GILTs. ultimately lower long term 2023 after a possible visit to 15000s on global relief rally with soft US data numbers this week.

kShah33

even pre-jackson hole the nasdaq behaved perfectly within the identified channel. with the next SP level over 2% lower, QQQ looks likely to make a attempt some 4%, out pacing the spider. if a naked short is too adventurous, a hedge with longer SP & short NASDAQ looks worthy of a punt. happy trading.

kShah33

4H range trends on DIXY leading JACKSON HALL trend line provide support/resistance breakout me levels for bearish/bullish move