krisoz

krisoz

I know, I sound like a bear monger when the market looks very bullish and at best possible technical support. Nothing wrong with taking advantage of it, but shouldn't forget the bigger picture. The market valuation has been pushed up by easy money since GFC and valuation. The covid money printing made it worse. Bigger the bubble, bigger the burst With recession...

krisoz

After warning of 200 pnts drop yesterday for monday, the futures opened 200 pnts lower at 4800 But expect to see a green bar during the day or tomorrow with 5100 as target to fill some gap and many short sellers taking profit. 4800 is at 2022 peak so technically a strong support 5100 hundred would be a resistance for further downside If it goes over 5100 and...

krisoz

SP500 E-min futures opened 200 pnts lower as I predicted. I have to make frequent updates because of the fast changing environment. This is just reading the market and you all can do it with practice. Volatility on futures options has crossed 100! My God! I have never seen such readings. With SPX being at key level at 2022 peak and also at HVN, some positive news...

krisoz Updated 

Three days back I had warned of a crash which did materialise beyond my expectation. Today again based on the same VP analysis and additionally major trendline break principal I am predicting a 200pnts crash on Monday as we have enter a major low volume region. I hope I am wrong for the sake of all those who are still invested The market achieved the first target...

krisoz

Channels can be drawn in many ways because of fractal nature of markets. Every one could draw different channels and they all could be valid, So I prefer to draw a few likely ones some short term and others long term and find a cluster of convergence for high probability. No one is perfect So just presenting what I see in NDX, mot likely ones I expect Vix to reach...

krisoz

Just putting my personal view based on market information and minimum speculation. I hope my warning of a crash in my last post was useful I rely heavily on volume profile and market geometry and of course my indicator( check it out: HiLo Ema squeeze bands) I expect the market to fall to 4820 (about 61.8% fib level) to fill some volume gap, also 2022 peak, do a...

krisoz Updated 

I have done a short term volume profile analysis with support and resistance levels. Market is at long term trendline as well. I Expect a small bounce and some grinding for a week or so fighting the long term trendline. Personally I think it will crash through the trendline after a week of grinding, but will watch closely and make short term trades

krisoz

As I write this futures are sharply down to 5440 and ViX is at 40. I expect to see a short technical bounce to about 5550, being at major trendline. The wedge formation is similar to 2022. A breakout from Wedge would be sharp either way. If it holds at this level for a couple of weeks then I expect to see a bounce to 5775.I had said earlier in my vix analysis we...

krisoz

XLF has yet to fall 4% at least and then maybe another 4-5 % from the SHS neckline. For now I will go one step at a time and target the neckline in a weeks time

krisoz

Time for Gold to rest pause consolidate after climbing 21.37%. What's with this number? Even the best can't climb Mt Everest in one go. They must rest at every base camp, so must gold

krisoz

A month back I wouldn't have believed this post though I did expect 10% correction and exited my major position at the top. I post this as pure academic purpose and my own record. I find volume profile the most important tool in technical analysis. Whatever I present here is an educated guess and not pure speculation. Before doing the profile I did a VP study on...

krisoz

The VIX is following similar pattern to 2022 and gradually increasing. Using that pattern, I can compare current spx to 2022 and draw a channel to 2022. then we have a way down to go. I also agree with ContraryTrader's post on spy specially his observation on Wyckoff distribution. I have been following the news and I know that big investors like Warren Buffet...

krisoz

SPX is going to finish a bear flag and could break down. The Vix is also showing slight upward strength but not much yet. Based on that I don't think we have much downside now in next 2/3 months. However the overall trend of VIX is trending upwards similar to 2022 making higher bottoms since Dec 24, So we could have a year with big swings like we did in 2022

krisoz

200 days HILO EMA central line has always given a strong support resistance in the past and I would expect that to be so this time as well. Since the market structure broke when prices crossed the lower outer ema band, even if the price goes above the middle line I would not consider it to be bullish.Only when the prices hit the upper or lower band a new trend...

krisoz

Tesla is heading to 320 to be shorted again During its climb to 485 TSLA had hardly any volume bove 285, but on the fall side it had significant volume, indicating short sellers were the net cause of volume. The same are taking profits now causing sharp rise. There is volume imbalance at around 320, also the middle line of hilo ema (200 days) which is powerful...

krisoz

Using Hio Ema Squeeze band you can quickly find support/resistance levels as confirmed here with the trend lines. Here I have used 1000 for all the bands, this makes it look cleaner. Another trick is use two bands one with 200,1000,1000 and the other with 1000,1000,1000 and you will double squeeze bands resulting in one with 200 and other with 1000

krisoz

AUDUSD on 1h chart, is most likely going down once the red trendline breaks. That will also be a break of a triangle (RED) A large bearish flag with Head and shoulder pattern almost complete. The centre line and the trendline break frequently meets the centre of the swing range. So if the red trendline breaks we are looking at 130 pips down! which is the height of...

krisoz

Did you know this market geometry/symmetry: When a (strong) trendline is broken, the market will fall equal distance or more from the trendline as from the peak to the breakpoint. If google breaks (or has it?) it could fall another 20% and meet the long term trendline, if doesnt then the recent breakpoint would become resistance