malvinspooner

malvinspooner

I expected this EFT to get down to the $70 neighborhood before I'd step up - and it has. Seems to have bounced nicely and is trending upward.

malvinspooner

I suggested in an earlier post that I'd buy tech ETF's if they dropped to my target of $25. In this case, it got there and is rebounding nicely. Suggest it is okay to own.

malvinspooner

Although we could have an occasional relief rally, with the global shutdown likely to impact corporate earnings in a big way, I won't be surprised if investors begin to expect the equivalent of 3 months of virtually no earnings. It may never get to my new target range of 1850 - 1900 but it will surely continue to drop.

malvinspooner

Around $20 seems to be where the price of WTI crude wants to settle. Although demand has been clobbered by the coronavirus global lock-down, the commodity's demand curve is not insensitive to price. Also, China is getting back to work and is the largest importer of crude globally.

malvinspooner

TFI International is North American transportation and logistics leader, partnering with a diverse group of customers in the US, Canada and Mexico. The stock, TFII now trades in New York (as well as Toronto). Fuel is a large component of cost structure. I'm accumulating on down days in the market.

malvinspooner

I am looking at a 2 to 3 year typical oil cycle, and the stocks have be beaten up enough now. I like Suncor and Crescent Point Energy in Canada, but US plays also beginning to look oversold as well.

malvinspooner

In earlier published idea, I indicated that corporate spreads would widen and that indexes (and lower quality corporate bonds) heavily invested in corporate high-yield bonds would suffer. This has since occurred, and will continue.

malvinspooner

My most recent target of 2250-ish on the S&P 500 was considered ludicrous a week ago; now it seems more and more likely at the market continues to dive. $150 S&P earnings (i.e. down 10% for the year) X a P/E of 15. This too may prove optimistic. More at www.maverickinvestors.com

malvinspooner

Everyone stuck at home for several weeks (months?) working seems to have cause a run on home work (computer monitors for example) and entertainment. Reluctant to ride public transit or go to sporting events or travel, consumers not shy to visit stores carrying what they need to survive at home.

malvinspooner

It's now possible to own bank stocks and have the dividend yields carry the investment - for example using a larger renegotiated mortgage or 2nd mortgage for financing. It is highly likely this arbitrage opportunity will provide a floor (downside resistance) and simply wait for the economy and markets to stabilize (cap gains). The Canadian banks are particularly...

malvinspooner

Typical pattern in a bear market when investors are still in denial. Short-covering inspires the optimists things have finally bottomed, when they haven't and we see the old 'dead cat bounce.' Short the rallies, and cover when the trend resumes is often a successful trading ploy.

malvinspooner

Target of 2600 was based on 20X no earnings growth for the Index. This could prove to be optimistic as negative surprises after 1st Quarter spook investor expectations.

malvinspooner

You can see from the chart that the price of Chevron (as one example) has declined in line with crude (WTI) price. However, you can also see the stocks tend to overshoot both on the upside and downside. This suggests there's more downside before the stocks bottom and can be bought.

malvinspooner

The outlook for gold price just got shinier. With inflation at 2.1% (PPI) and 3 month T-Bills at 1.25%, it makes no sense to be in cash (short term) se

malvinspooner

As coronavirus pandemic spreads, consumers will continue to work at home and eat-at-home. Prime beneficiaries will be grocers. Sobeys in Canada (owned by Empire Company) is also reducing costs rapidly and has a 'smaller' store format strategy across Canada. Synergies from its acquisition of Safeway's Canada stores continue.

malvinspooner

A way to play (rather than defend against) the corona virus is grocery chains. Kroger (the big one) for example stands to benefit and people eat at home and work from home.

malvinspooner

First shock (Friday) and then denial (Monday) are symptoms of the first stage of grief. Earnings surprises to the downside will keep coming for months as companies lower guidance and analysts revise down their estimates. Short on up occasions, and cover on down days. Sound like a plan?

malvinspooner

Expect more downside in tech stocks - Friday up-tick likely just short-covering. Although GOOGL less vulnerable to coronavirus than others, it will trade with the market as panic continues.