marketfellow

marketfellow

- 370 was the top of the 13-year bull market - The troubling sign appeared when breaking down the neckline 340 after the head-and-shoudler patten - Failed to retest 340 on August 15 formed a reversal pattern that is the final warning for a big trouble - Due to a lack of support down below except 267 (weak support), the major downtrend could reset DIA back to 183,...

marketfellow

This is our follow-up article after April's notes on breaking-down, breaking apart on DIA 1. The bear market started as early as breaking down on the key neckline 2. It is still at an early stage of the bear cycle. 3. The following support levels will be 262 and 183. 4. Please note that when DIA drops from 360 to 180 it means -50% down. There could be more...

marketfellow

- breaking-down terminated the uptrend channel - breaking-apart revived the heal-and-shoulder neckline and penetrated it. - Lack of support could make these one-two punches fatal for DIA.

marketfellow

- Double cup pattern for 7-months with resistance at 380 - On 01/25/2022 LMT broke out 380 so it was the entry point - Please note that 380 was tested as support on 02/15/2022 - 02/24/2022 Russia-Ukraine began that was the time for LMT to fly into the sky. - LMT made a powerful move for the +18% profits

marketfellow

- solid 3-month rectangle pattern at basement level 53-59 during September-December 2021 - notice 12/16/2021 NEM got a upside momemtum to 59 level that was the entry point - there were few pullbacks to test 59 as the support in January 2022 but it bounced up quickly - Rally occurred for NEWM during February-March when Russia-Ukraine war started - It is a...

marketfellow

First wave: 8 to 16. We can see how strong AA was to make +100% gains in about 10 months Second wave: 16 to 24. It took another 10 months for +50% gains Third wave: 24 to 31. APA made another +30% in two months Fourth wave: 31 to 44. The highest gains could be +42% in 3 months Although we did not participate in the entire rally from the bottom 8 or waves 1-3,...

marketfellow

- 3-4 month base build a flat channel pattern in the tight range 44-52 - first entry point occurred 12/16/2021 at 52 when AA broke out the pattern - we missed this entry point but we waited until its first consolidation 56-64 until early February - obviously, AA was ready to make its prime time rally on February 7-8 when getting out 64 so it was our entry point...

marketfellow

- nearly one-year consolidation base since May 2021 - initial breakout works well in February-March 2022 - consolidate between 36-40 in March after the breakout - breaking out 40 could open up its next uptrend rally

marketfellow

3-month base with round shape cup pattern (10/18/21 - 01/18/22) 2-week handle (01/18/22-02/01/22) key resistance level 43-44 triggering day 02/01 with about 10% move (from 40 to44) Mild rise and re-test 44 on 02/24 02/24 was the day that began the Russia-Ukraine war Inflation and wars both squeezed fertilizer to the sky for the next 5 weeks +56% profits in 7 weeks

marketfellow Updated 

- This unsymmetrical head-and-shoulder pattern (SPY) is harder to identify because its shape is asymmetrical shapes. - Also, it took 8 months to complete (July 2021-Feb 2022). - Most importantly, SPY comes to a very critical level @430 which is its neckline or final support. - If it breaks below 430, there is no support until the 321-357 area. - It could mean a...

marketfellow

- Five months head-and-shoulder pattern is near completion for DIA - Head was located at 370. Two shoulders were defined with its neckline at 340 - This is a very important moment to watch how Dow Jones behaves on its key level 34000 (DIA 340) - Falling below 340 will conclude the 12 years-old bull cycle. In addition, the neckline 340 will form a resistance level...

marketfellow Updated 

- Convergence process for gold miners (GDX) took place for about 2 years - Rising inflation (CPI 7.5%) and potential warfare (Russia-Ukraine) made the stage ready for precious metals to shine - The breakout setup is ready with the pivot point at 34

marketfellow

Technology-focus index Nasdaq or Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) has been in trouble in 2022. - Initial breakdown at 382 was fatal and a warning for the coming downtrend - Breakdown follow-through will occur around 348 after the convergence process - Falling below 348 will open the door for another sell-off until reaching rebound or support at 300 as shown

marketfellow

- Initial breakdown at 382 showed that QQQ had a trouble - Losing 200 DMA at 365 confirmed the bull-to-bear transition - Potential rebound or support will be 300 where multiple peaks and lows were made.

marketfellow

It is the time to say goodbye for the 12-year-old bulls that started in March 2009 when SPY failed to climb back the 200 DMA line as shown. Let's see how long it takes to 300, the previous 200 DMA line.

marketfellow

Breadth readings are important to how many pillars are available to support a building. From MMTH or "Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average", we can easily see it tops out on February 2021. It keeps going down from 90% to 30% now. But, a few mega stocks overweighted the index like AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, FB, TSLA, NFLX distorts the picture where we only...

marketfellow

Long term trend 200 day-moving-average line is very critical to watch as QQQ approaches this line closer. About 75% of Nasdaq stocks were already falling below their 200 DMA line. If Nasdaq100 or QQQ also breaks this line, the bear market arrives with full confirmation before Nasdaq enters its -20% level.

marketfellow

This is the second profitable trade in 2021 for VSTO. The second time is after the convergence pattern.