I'm still bullish on the macro but lets look at the facts
Price broke the daily trend, signifying change of trend. After the drop on the 4th December price has so far not bounced to .5 - .618 and measured fib target for continuation from the bounce is as low as 38-39k..
Daily death cross pending in the coming days/weeks unless price reclaims 52k, average drop...
Trading range clearly established between 38 and 28.5, phase B has been a slow grind down in to support, forcing late buyers to give up their positions.
Now on the lookout for Phase C, which could be spring action below the range or uprise off support and jumping the creek for the bullish case. If price springs but fails to return to the range (Sign of Weakness -...
Further to my previous Wyckoff bias from the daily, now seeing the trading range develop on the 4H, Phase C shakeout may have been concluded and I'm now looking for price to jump the creek (yellow), break the descending trend line. And put in an SOS above the range, with a retest before targeting the .33 Fib level from the cup and handle formation.
A thesis I've been tracking for Harmony, there are various things pointing north.
I think this coin is under valued and with the roadmap we should see it much closer to Fantom and Matic. And estimate it should reach $1.5 region in the not to distant future.
Confirmed downtrend with lower lows and lower highs on the daily, extremely high futures funding fees, descending triangle, 4 Hour death cross looming and 21 EMA and no divergences to be found.
Target 1.38 daily supertrend support.
3 possible scenarios for bitcoin
A = Ascending triangle and continue - too easy
B = Bullflag to washout inexperienced traders - possible
C = Potential bullflag becomes a descending triangle, play with the inexperienced traders, bearish cycle resumes - seen this all before
Best to wait for a break of the ATH and ride the trend if we go higher, it's been to easy...
I exited BTC back in August during what i saw as the wykoff distribution on a 12hour @ 12k, this is still my working theory and that we may test 12k again but I expect a further retracement over the coming 6-12 months, along with a multi year bear market in traditional stocks.
The markets have been propped by FED and Trump needed this to win and stop the economy...
Possible bullish breakout to the .61 fib13278 if we don't break through the .51 support and supporting trend lines at ~11300.
Macro perspective still bullish.
Thoughts?
