mess_on_a_mission

mess_on_a_mission

Price action looks unsure, nothing clear yet. We have those similarities with consolidation period last year when we managed to squeeze the price for the "second top". Structure looks same, with broke wedge and touching lows with visible divergence on RSI which was at exactly same levels at the bottom and top. It had nothing in common with breaking from the...

mess_on_a_mission

I will have in mind scenario where we reject at 20.8-21.3 and make new lows in next 10 days around 17 k. If we wont get massive liqudations below current low then maybe they will position price to load shorts and squeeze them after CPIs announcment at 13th of October what would give us a chance of a green month with target above 25 k imo. Potential divergence on...

mess_on_a_mission

Just like in case #1 targets in log scale just in case of a huge huge sale off remain the same. Still more chance imo for keeping 17 k but better be prepared for everything.

mess_on_a_mission

I see no good reason for that case but.. it'a better to have somethng really bad in mind while there's no signs for even early accumulation. Still looks like they distribute even at those levels. So breaking 18 can lead to massive capitulation. I still hope it will hold and we start rebound after hitting 17 k but.. better to be prepared.

mess_on_a_mission

If 1W RSI divergence is going to play out we better have... new lows. Current price action looks like marking median of that little white channel. Moves look weaker and weaker, so unless we smash it to the upside I see rejection heading towards lower band of the channel, so at new lows. If we keep there then marking possible bottom is possible and this big red...

mess_on_a_mission

Imo the second touch of trend line from march crash and building solid higher low would be much more bullish than going up from here. Testing lows around 1 k would give us potential W bottom on 1W frame.

mess_on_a_mission

Bitcoin remains in consolidation point, market turns its bias to bullish, let's is it not too fast. Channel looks pretty legot so before move up we can still take liquidity around 17 k.

mess_on_a_mission

DXY looks really stron but last move looks like a blow off top with possible bigger pullback start. If thats so we can have nice rally on crypto. So far duration of "bull market" looked the same due to DXY fall and lasted for about one year. Will see where we will be at the end of the next year.

mess_on_a_mission

Seems nobody noticed that on CME Bitcoin already took lows and broke from the wedge . No looks like tested break out forming double bottom . The range is clear here, if we reclaim mid range then 25 k should b next as range high. That would also mean we broke trend line from ath what would be another confirmation that current range is accumulation one.

mess_on_a_mission

Current consolidation looks little like inverse version of wedge from the june low what gives hope we can break to the upside. For now we can see possible DB /W bottom, so imo if 18.7 will hold we can see some upward move to one of the main trend lines which are around or a little bit above 21 k. TL from ath is actually lower, so it will be good spot to close...

mess_on_a_mission

After post-CPI nuke everyone turned ultra bearish and that's normal. Global economics is in very bad shape, still hard to find anything poositive. And that's suspicious. far now it's liquidity game. For now it says up towards 22 k to create lower high at least. but.. Imagine how many shorts will open there. Imo we can still see some similarities to...

mess_on_a_mission

We can see very nice move from oversold BTC. But. Seems to be huge short squeeze towards previous support (21 k) and trend line from April. So - we can see some move down and consolidation during which ETH and alts will follow up strongly. OR It's another move to mark tops and range bound for BTC during which (till the end of september or so imo) BTC will be...

mess_on_a_mission

So far ETH outperforms BTC due to sheduled merge around 12-15 september. But is this price action really that bullish? We already had some nice more than 100% move from the lows. ETH dominance is in critical point right now. It's hard to believe we will break to the upside this multi year trend in one move. Of course BTC can start breaking to the upside and...

mess_on_a_mission

As we can see BTC loves to move inside clear parallel channels. So far during every bear market we were going 3 or 4 floors down. Now we are at the third floor from the tops and aditionally pric is being hold by strong, over two years, trend line from march crash. Still we have room to touch it (green dotted one) below 19 k what could give us strong higher low...

mess_on_a_mission

To stay this strucure of huge consolidation channel we need to keep uur current low and print stron higher low. We have place to one more lego down just slightly below 19 k where bulls will have to absorb all the selling pressure. If that holds I think we will have choppy month or longer even after breaking main trend line.

mess_on_a_mission

I think that at this move we should visit at least 1660/1720 area and there we will see if we are having just a correctional / fake move or we can get strong impulse to the upside. As we can see pattern was exactly the same previous time and fake breaking out the wedge to the upside did't end well for the bulls. So this time we need to reclaim trend on 1D and...

mess_on_a_mission

The more we stay in this falling wedge the more is chance we will go more to the downside. After abc correction we still consolidate under main trend line, due to end o the month and very posotive netflow (a lot of inflows) it's better to watch out here..

mess_on_a_mission

Looks like ETH bottmed for while and now consolidating in some choppy price action. As 1560 holds we can see some move to the upside but so far even if will happen looks pretty corrective. First step would be to take highs above 1720 and then maybe final push towards 1820 from where I would like to see some down move to test 1600 area. And if this will hold we...