mess_on_a_mission

mess_on_a_mission

Imo that type of channels are bullish only in bull markets where they are one of the most powerfull patterns. So while we are in bear market I dont think we will break it to the upside. One move up to the top is still possible but then I would rather see rejection and new lows around 600-750 in next two weeks. Time will tell.

mess_on_a_mission

From november last year after after CPIs announcments we constantly go down, but if we speak about pure price action there were a lot of fake moves before the main one. So, due to the fact we had fake break down resistance zone yesterday, we can have small pullback first bt then pump towards 22 k where prpbably we will have huge rejection and will leave...

mess_on_a_mission

Bitcoin on critical level. So far we tested trend line from april for five times alredy and every time we got rejection. Also most of the corectove moves were five waves with three legs up which we miss now. So if 19.7 will hold we can have one more small fake pump to touch trend line for the sixth time.

mess_on_a_mission

I dont see it now but... imo that would be big mistake to rule out short term bullish scenario on eth if we keep curent trend line and shape of channel in making. DXY also looks like it can top soon what could give us some nice push up but imo nthing more tnan huge short squueze and more downsde further. his scenario will become very alive only if we will have...

mess_on_a_mission

Short term looks like we can have little push to the upside towards 1400 usd. I will consider it as continuation of redistribution and just after its finished I would like to see downward movement to the new lows. I think green line matters and if we will go for new lows there can be our bottom. In that case huge accumulation channel would be very clear.

mess_on_a_mission

I think ETH in pair with BTC will correct a little bit more and will move up in next few days. After finishing correction I would like to see some reaction on the support marked on the picture and ater some period of accumulation huge move towards upward band of the channel what would mean we will do wave V, the last one in this bull market.

mess_on_a_mission

So far we had some accumulation (red triangle) breaking up and retest of breakout. Until 1070 usd holds there is still a chance to have one major leg up (fake one imo). Its crucial now to break up and get to median of the channel in the making around 1230 usd, then we should test trend line and if holds we must break median to swep range high, then test it from...

mess_on_a_mission

ETH likes to move smooth in channel patterns, for now I would like to see some downward movement towards 700-750 usd and forming bottom formation there. If we keep that level we probably will see some consolidation in next few months, 1700 will bee my range high price, if we break it nicely then even V towards ath levels and above will become possible.

mess_on_a_mission

We can see that ETH clearly rejectd at 1750 level and 1250 level. Using that resistances we can try to draw horizontal range with bottom near 750 usd. Will 750-1750 be our multi month accumulation range?

mess_on_a_mission

A big part of the market would like to see huge capitulation candle what would suggest we already bottomed. Imo there's a chance that capitulation will not occur just because market wants it. So there's a chance we will bleed slowly for couple nxt days, even weeks. In this chart I show comparison to forming bottom in 2018.

mess_on_a_mission

Well, different shape but.. seems like we already had once one year long distribution. Then in 2018 we went 50% in one month. I think history can repeat and we can slowly bleed for few more weeks. That would be surprising for those waiting for capitulation event and would give some hope to the bulls that bottom is in.

mess_on_a_mission

Well, did work every time before.. let's see how it works now. Looks like we have really lot of space for downside move towards 16/17 k :/

mess_on_a_mission

Ethereum falls hard in fud enviornment, it's alreadye reached previous ath level but seems like real capitulation did'nt occur yet. Imo it's still very likely that we see 30% move from here and btc under 20.

mess_on_a_mission

Imo we are not done yet with redistribution phase but there are still more and more signs that to distribute more we need higher levels. So we need to see if 30 k level holds and if than we can lift up even to 35/36 imo.

mess_on_a_mission

I noticed that everyone drawing trend line in log doesn't incude "covid crash" bottom treating it as "anomaly". Not sure why, it's drawn on chart now, it's a part of the cycles. So just in case things will go very bad I propose that TL which if hit would surprise those waiting for "not gonna test previous ath" pattern..

mess_on_a_mission

Imo we are not done yet. Current consolidation looks like redidtribution for me and at least once we should visit range low and probably break the range down then.

mess_on_a_mission

30.7 usd should be a strong resistance for bitcoin. If we reject here I think we will fall pretty fast towards new local bottom near 28.4. If we can break it up than a pump even towards 32.7 will be possible.

mess_on_a_mission

For now we can see specific range intact as we could have seen in 2018-2020 bear market. The whole cycle is closed in huge channel pattern and for no it looks like we are going to touch median line for the first time from the upside. If this will hold I can see chance to get our bottom and possible spring reaction ending our expanded flat correction.