mikezaccardi

mikezaccardi

Flying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the...

mikezaccardi

Mega-cap tech’s climb to jumpstart 2024 fooled many strategists who called for value, cyclical, and small-cap niches to outperform. The same old playbook has been in full swing, but could that be about to change? Consider that banks, not chips, ended this week at fresh multi-year highs following a late-week pullback among the big semiconductor names. But there’s...

mikezaccardi

Foreign markets have made some headlines in recent months. The German Dax and French CAC 40 hit record levels toward the end of 2023. Those indexes are generally priced in local currency, and a rising dollar in 2023 led to relative underperformance among US-traded ETFs. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has consolidated around the key 104 level lately. Amid this FX...

mikezaccardi

It was nearly three years ago when the China stock market notched a short-term peak. Recall how the world's second-largest economy was initially seen as a growth engine coming out of the worst of the pandemic. An authoritative regime in China, led by President Xi Jinping, crippled the economy's expansion trajectory through harsh ongoing lockdowns and by clamping...

mikezaccardi

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gotten off to a rip-roaring start to 2024. Up more than 2% on the year, the greenback’s ascent comes after significant declines over the final handful of months in 2023. That is usually a headwind for equities, particularly shares of companies domiciled overseas. Not surprisingly, we’ve seen many foreign index funds suffer relative to...

mikezaccardi

The US Natural Gas Fun (UNG) paces for its third-worst single-session performance in the ETF's 17-year history as of this writing. Tuesday afternoon weather model runs did the prompt-month of natural gas no favors, and the February contract has plunged all the way back under $3 after poking above $3.30 late last week. The current record-shattering polar snap will...

mikezaccardi

Emerging Markets have been a source of disappointment for global investors since their peak in Q4 2007. Despite intermittent short-term outperformance and hopes for a rebound, relative strength against the US has declined since October 2010. However, amidst that awful trend, EM small caps have quietly emerged as winners, showing a total return of nearly 10% since...

mikezaccardi

NVIDIA (NVDA) shares broke out in one of the cleanest moves you’ll come across. The current 4-day rally is now more than 12% - the best such stretch since the chip designer posted its now-famous earnings blowout and incredible guidance figures in May 2023. NVDA’s rally has helped the Information Technology sector reclaim losses to start 2024. But where will the...

mikezaccardi

Perhaps the most important macro driver for stock prices in the last year and a half has been the US Dollar Index. The DXY has ranged between the upper 90s and about 107 since the third quarter of 2022. When the greenback has been on the rise, equities have generally been weak. A softer dollar has led to a period of stock market strength. Of course, ebbs in the...

mikezaccardi

This morning’s jobs report came in stronger than expected, and oil prices rallied. The 216k December NFP gain topped the +175k estimate, though revisions to the two previous months were sharply negative – a trend we saw throughout 2023. Average hourly earnings verified hotter than what economists were forecasting. At +4.1% on a year-on-year basis, workers are now...

mikezaccardi

2024 has opened on a sour note. S&P 500 futures are lower by about 0.7%. Not a huge move, but that's good enough to erase nearly all the gains since the close on December 21. Recall that the technical Santa Clause Rally period is the last five trading days of the old year and the first two sessions of the new year. As it stands, the S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is up...

mikezaccardi

Flip on financial TV and you will likely hear a plethora of sellside strategists and buyside portfolio managers voice optimism about small-cap US stocks. Consider that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was easily in negative territory on the year back in October. Fast forward just two months and the small-cap ETF is up close to 20% total return in 2023. The quick...

mikezaccardi

Financial conditions have eased significantly in recent months. Pundits toss around that term haphazardly, but there are actually a handful of specific indicators that determine how loose or tight financial conditions in the domestic economy are. Of course, the Fed Funds rate is crucial to interbank lending and the corporate fixed income space along with where the...

mikezaccardi

Small caps have surged to fresh highs dating back to the first quarter of 2022. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has suddenly become a darling among sellside strategists and even buyside macro portfolio managers. Recall it was just two months ago when the group traded around 12 times next year’s earnings estimates. Jump ahead to today, and a 25% rally since October 27...

mikezaccardi

So far this year, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) is up 17% total return. The performance across EM, including the world’s second-largest economy (China), is not as strong. The iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is up less than 7% with dividends included. Among the standout countries in 2024 is India. Its Nifty 50 Index broke out to fresh...

mikezaccardi

It has been a record year... for cyber extortion. Orange Cyberdefense data, detailed in a Bloomberg article this week, reveal that there have been four straight quarters of increased corporate victims of hacks and financial blackmails. Major recent cyberattacks include those on MGM Grand, Clorox, Boeing, and China’s ICBC just this year alone. It is all good news...

mikezaccardi

Last Friday's University of Michigan Survey of Consumers revealed some surprising bullish trends as we head into the heart of the holiday season. November’s 69.4 sentiment score, the highest since August, was a massive jump from 61.3 in October, making a positive change in how consumers feel about the state of the economy. Within the report, though, is what really...

mikezaccardi

Small caps have sprung back to life. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell nearly 20% from its July 31 recovery high to a multi-year low in October of $162, undercutting the June 2020 mark of $164. Today, the move back up to $186 might feel like too much, too fast, but I see things otherwise. Notice in the chart that IWM actually went through a more than...