nexmartin

nexmartin

Institutional Momentum: On Dec. 19, USD/JPY trading volume surged to $23 billion, and options activity targeting 160-165 exploded, signaling institutional confidence in further upside. Why I'm Buying Now? The market is aligned with my thesis: hedge funds are piling into bullish USD/JPY positions, and the technical and fundamental setup supports further upside....

nexmartin

This is the first time I'm testing the accuracy of 4 different quant models that I built with python and blended together. #1: Monte Carlo Simulation #2: Augmented Dickey Fuller #3: Drawdown Analysis #4: Markov Regime Switching Model

nexmartin

This is my first real experiment with LSTM and tensorflow.

nexmartin

Catching the pricing-in period and the short-term devaluation of the USD.

nexmartin

As the rate cut is not expected due to still somewhat high inflation caused by higher PPI, market participants will most likely start pricing in the bearish dollar as rate cuts are expected sooner or later. Falling GDP makes it inevitable as the feds don't favor the slowing economy.

nexmartin

After reading the EUR macro-data and the AUD macro-data, including the statements and minutes of ECB and RBA, I've arrived at the following conclusions: EUR snippet: "Economic activity in the euro area had remained weak in the first two months of 2024. Consumers continued to hold back on spending, housing investment had remained subdued and companies had...

nexmartin

Institutions on the COT report are buying NZD, and aggressively selling JPY. Retail sentiment shows 90%+ selling. Very clean trend, consistently making higher highs and higher lows. On the most recent high, the volume remained high, signifying a trend continuation. The last retracement reaching fib 75% shows a possible but early start off of a Wyckoff...

nexmartin

I see a possible Wyckoff distribution on CADCHF. Institutions on the COT report are showing a very strong sell-off for CAD and more long contracts on CHF. The last high was made with a lower volume. The market structure level was broken on H1, and the re-test also happened.

nexmartin Updated 

I'm looking to wait out 2000. XAU just broke structure to the downside with high volume, which tells me that there is selling pressure. Historically, anytime XAU went above 2000, it ALWAYS came back and went below 2000. I've been shorting this since December, with no overthinking. It's important to use proper risk management so you can withstand any temporary...

nexmartin

XAU again just broke structure to the downside with high volume, which tells me that there is still selling pressure. My target is around 1975, I'm going to revisit the chart when nearing it and check if the volume is high as we are making new lows. Hoping we won't break the market structure level which is at the previous lower high.

nexmartin

Looking for a longer bull run. The market structure level on H1 has been broken, the lowest low happened with low volume, which tells that the institutions cooled down with selling. D1 300 period linear regression channel shows price in the lower range. Price is also in the lower range of the last 60 days. And more...

nexmartin

Looking for a short bull run. The market structure level on H1 has been broken, the lowest low happened with low volume, which tells that the institutions cooled down with selling. D1 300 period linear regression channel shows the price in the lower range of the last 60 days. And more...