Everything is on the chart. The average pullback is 12.27% . In even years, the average pullback is 16.68% . The end of the line connecting the 23 March 2020 bottom and the 2023-2024 peaks at the end of Q3 is 5890. Over 10% correction is expected. There is a high probability that it could eventually turn into a crash.
Historical data over the past 10 years shows that VIX bottoming phase usually lasts no more than 168-193 trading days. After that, a significant spike occurs, which sends the VIX to the 35-80+ zone. Even if today was not the starting point of this upside move, there is not much time left. We have already passed 172 trading days. Take this into account before...
In every even year S&P 500 reaches its ATH in Q1, which is followed by rapid and deep decline.
Why can it crash? Look how similar S&P 500 behaviour between May 1986-December 1987 and October 2022-February 2024.
The 1987 crash started on the way from 1.414 to 1.618 fibo.
If the S&P 500 hasn't already topped on Feb 2 with a value of 4975, then the price range...