This peak-to-trough has held with a cycle time of 7 days. That being said, option premiums make this an expensive bet. Is it worth it? Too rich for my blood. Feedback encouraged.
Here's the kicker. It may very well be true that the world is so starved for manufacturing activity that any additional supply coming online will crush the oil price. But in this particular case, the short-term fundamentals driving the oil price are not going to translate to the long-term prospects of oversold oilfield plays, and NOV is one of them.
This is...
An overdue relief rally has stalled precisely at 2875, the January 2018 top. The VIX is high considering the steepness of the rally. Pick a headline, I don't care what, but ES call premiums are fat, so with no buy catalyst, if we go up, it's a melt up and you should have more time to let it play out going up rather than down. Or if you're that greedy, buy calls....
Nothing to see here! Just googled ABCD trading and drew some stuff for the first time, and watching three support/resistance levels: 2815. If we breach that, then 2740, then 2630, which would be exactly a 10% retracement from ATH from this double top.
This market just feels like it's desperately hunting for a catalyst to sell. Things I've heard: German flash...
Self-explanatory.
Sales for non crypto use are slow because the demand from crypto have made the cards too expensive for the PC consumer. Crypto is putting pressure on all gaming companines, and provides no incentive to make better products. Hence the popularity of Fortnite, a game that can be played on any PC without an expensive PC/laptop video card.
The cup appears more parabolic, but even so, it's trending upward without the cup & handle to possibly re-test $19. Note decline in volume during the handle formation.
If we get a nice Santa Clause melt-up, followed by a sell off in January, expect people to flock to utilities.
The first bill everybody pays is their electricity bill. If we start to get the handle formation, I'm betting the house as soon as we gap up.
There are two ways to trade this. One is to short TSO to $73.40, and if the resistance holds, go long until $77.90. That's too risky.
You can do that, but I'd rather play this as a straddle. Sell the $70 puts (1.25) and $80 calls (1.31) September calls.
Max Profit: $256 per option.
If oil takes a significant dip overnight, I will be short MPC. I don't think there is any fundamental to support this stock to the upside anyways, so I am shorting calls. Plus I am not much of an options buyer unless to trying to hit a home run.
The blue line represents options expiration day. These are 4h bars.
Important to note that NOT all refiners are...
Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made.
MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher...
I've been long MPC for a number of reasons. I'm just bored. Quiet day. The most important thing is that it's found a bottom at $29 after free-falling with no support unless you go back to 2012. This stock is down -50% since early Dec 2015.
Disclosure: I am long MPC.
No reason to hold anything over the weekend unless you have to. Something smelly about the markets. I can feel the SPY wanting to sell.
MPC rallied up testing 37.00 fib level. It tested that level and it did not breach. The chart indicates overall bullish. It has/is building a nice $35 floor for itself. THE MODEL HAS NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN AND MPC IS TRADING PER THOSE...
This is a simple overlay of MPC and OVX. They share an inverse relationship with the most recent cross at the first session of 2016. Since then, OVX has skyrocketed, and MPC tanked eventually finding some support at $29. Previous support is near the high teens, but those are early historical lows.
Since the MPC $29 support, there appears to be a technical base...
