pantheo

pantheo

Additionally to my yen weakness idea of the last few years, is gold priced in yen. This is not a developing world country being attacked by the system and vulture funds. This is the 3rd largest economy in the world and supposedly one or the pillars of the current global financial system and governance. Charts going vertical like this are very rare to...

pantheo

After the well expected rejection as posted, see attachment, from roughly 152 to 127 during late '22 early '23, dollar yen gave another entry during 3rd quarter of last year by retesting the morning star pattern, around 137.50. Already up by another 17% in another, beautiful, long trade. Looks like "princes of the yen" (excellent book and doc by prof Werner,...

pantheo

As said in my attached US dollar index note, dollar yen reached too near 30 year old supply zone. Reportedly, BOJ spend $30 billion defending the yen, to achieve this little retrace in the monthly chart. Did they cashed out some of their US bonds in their reserves? Probably and logically will continue to do so in the future, as China started doing too more...

pantheo

As the old time traders kept saying, "get the dollar right and everything else falls in its place", still especially during these times, the dollar index is the barometer of everything around us. So, is this at least a short term top? Looks like it with this week's closing and assuming for now that end of month will print an inside candle. If not, look higher...

pantheo

Is a breaking up due? Your guess is as good as mine. Only thing I know is that indices are not in an area I'm willing to keep my normal positions on. Trimmed already yesterday and upped my stops on most positions except bonds and gold, as was posted during May and and early July Momentum is showing a hidden negative divergence as printed a HH while the...

pantheo

What a great run was this of course, up more than 200%. Starting to approach possible demand zones, while the correlation to dollar index remains strong on a yearly basis. If this doesn't prove the emergency of global needs towards commodities and shortages, I don't know what else can prove it. More often than not, commodities trade inversely to dollar index....

pantheo

Well, sometimes it takes a little time for a successful trade, sometimes takes a lot. This particular one has been running for more than 6 years now and maybe it will need a breath before the next leg up, offering a better entry to those interest or adding positions opportunity to those involved early. Although still inside the mother candle of April, that is...

pantheo

Everything is still bearish but remains to be seen if this DZ has any power left as in the first visit reaction was poor. Failing wedge broke down, Bollinger Bands are still open indicating that squeeze is still on and relative volume is increasing while in selling mode. AVWAP (green line) from major 2020 low was violated to the downside as the main TL from that...

pantheo

While against other major and emerging currencies is near the highs, gold against the dollar shows a double fake breakout against 2011 high and a double top with momentum weakening and show itself a topping H&S pattern. As everyone, including myself, awaits the breakout of this giant C&H pattern, from 2011 highs to 2015 lows, I'm very much afraid that possible...

pantheo

Right above is the usual monthly supply zone from 1.020 to 1.035 where price reversed the last 7 years A possible obvious reversal on the daily and a close below the big level of 1.00 will probably give us a short signal at least for the near term horizon to retest demand levels, as Swiss Central Bank has entered the global race of currency devaluation

pantheo

Looks like G10 currencies are holding somewhat better against the dollar so far. Correlation divergences usually hints at major lows / highs and extreme volatility environment. $CEW, $DBV

pantheo

Facing broadening formation and momentum resistance after +6% in this quarter, crossing above last year's high Geopolitics in place as China is trying to weaken it's currency following Japan's lead. 2019 & 2020 double top will be difficult to break at once, but you never know in the current environment. Give it maybe another quarter or less before the US will...

pantheo

Maybe will influence the dollar which is at resistance area and euro at support After the major low of September '20 in the attached chart, its the second time that yield spread is visiting the 2% area. Probably we'll need a third before breaks the area for good. I see no reason in buying the euro except for the long awaited bounce, which will be proved another...

pantheo

Since this chart published during August 2014, after a first momentum burst, dollar stayed in a trading range for more than 6 years. 102-103 area, coinciding with 61.8 fib from 2001 high to 2008 low, proved too tough to break, after the target of the broken triangle reached during January 2017. Now, it's third time visiting this area. More often than not big...

pantheo

Big trends are coming when the two of them, supposedly both safe havens, are decoupling. Yen is being devaluated to produce the desired inflation for Japan and gold is doing it's thing, absorbing all the purchasing weakness of the currency. If wave 5, as it currently looks maybe will take a breath at 1.618 fib around 27000 before resume the uptrend in the years to come.

pantheo

Attempting a second break out from twenty plus year resistance. Maybe Japan will get the most wanted for three decades inflation after all. The huge IH&S formation gives the unbelievable probable target of 175. Shake outs are to be expected as it is already in the overbought area but last time RSI was this high the pair travelled north nearly 1,300 pips...

pantheo

Careful with longs, entering potential sell area for stocks Not a timing indicator, but good to know regarding positions size in case of reversal

pantheo

Problem is that demand zone is not fresh and secondly, price broke down from Sep 20 low at 39,573-red dotted line-which was the last cycle low. We sure can get a bounce from the current zone as a bear market relief one, but probably after a few days rally price will start coming down again possibly until 2nd or 3rd week of February, where current intermediate...