positionforex

positionforex May 20

This week's selloff has a chance of validating last week's Shooting Star candle. It's only Tuesday, so there's still much time left, but if the DXY does fall here, the next stop is 97.50, and then 94.75. I don't consider 97.50 a strong level, so somewhere near 95 is more likely. Thursday's PMI numbers could push the USD in either direction. The last print was...

positionforex Mar 20

The Fed held rates at 4.50%, matching market expectations. Powell highlighted high uncertainty over the outlook, stressing that tariffs are a significant factor driving inflation expectations. Economic forecasts saw notable shifts: 2025 GDP growth was trimmed to 1.7% from 2.1%, while core PCE inflation was revised up to 2.8%. The US dollar weakened as the Pound...

positionforex Mar 19

EURUSD fell from its recent high near 1.0950 as the US Dollar regained strength ahead of the Fed’s expected decision to hold rates steady. All eyes are on Germany’s upcoming debt restructuring vote—which could boost growth and employment—and on US-Russia peace talks, adding to market uncertainty amid looming tariff threats. Technically, the pair remains above...

positionforex Dec 16, 2024

It's been a fantastic move lower, but is 0.6400 a spot for a reversal? Nothing fundamental is serving as a catalyst for moving the pair in any direction for the rest of the year. Trend: LSMA moving lower since 10/21/24 Momentum: Bearish Japanese Candles: Inverted Hammer (imperfect) printed last week. Is this the bottom? Chart Pattern: None Support and...

positionforex Dec 10, 2024

Trend: LSMA moving lower since 9/30/24 Momentum: Bearish but closing toward Neutral Japanese Candles: Bullish One White Soldier - Could become a Morning Star reversal Chart Pattern: None Support and Resistance: 1.2650 is Support, 1.3100 is Target Fundamentals: U.S. CPI and PPI this week. Trade: Open Long 12/2/24 @ 1.2637 Stop: 0.1.2500 Target: 1.3100 ...

positionforex Updated  Jun 10, 2024

Yen's weakness has been one of the biggest stories of the last two years, but we are set for a reversal in the near term. Fundamentally, inflation and the economy are holding steady in Japan, and the carry trade looks very old. In late April, the big reversal shook many carry traders out and opened the door to a near-term reversal. This is a higher-risk trade...

positionforex Updated  Jun 10, 2024

As you can see, I've been short EURUSD since 3/31/24. Last week's CPI report and the build-up before that have turned a profitable trade into a losing one for now. I think the Fed will continue to hold higher rates, and I believe the economy still has some steam. Inflation takes a while to work its way into the economy and takes even longer to get out, so I'm...

positionforex Jun 4, 2024

Canada's inflation is well below 2%, and with GDP underperforming at 1.7% annualized, the time to cut rates from 5% could be this Wednesday. If this doesn't happen, we could see a snapback in the market near the 0.9050 area, which would be a good potential entry. Australia's inflation rate is 3.4%, so no rate cut coming soon. NO TRADE Trend: Bullish Momentum:...

positionforex Updated  Jun 4, 2024

Somewhere between 0.6400 and 0.6900, there is the possibility of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern forming. This consolidation will lead to a significant breakout, which could be in either direction with this pattern. The nature of this pattern negates the usefulness of trend and momentum as indicators. The best way to negate this pattern would be for AUDUSD to...

positionforex Updated  May 14, 2024

Trend: LSMA moving lower for 3+ weeks, pattern of Lower Highs and Lower Lows Momentum: Moved to Neutral as price retraces the selloff Japanese Candles: An imperfect Shooting Star is developing Chart Pattern: Bearish Channel Support and Resistance: 0.6675 is Support, 0.6400 is Resistance. Fundamentals: Aussie Retail Sales on Wednesday Trade: Open Short...

positionforex Jan 8, 2019

I usually post Weekly charts. Using a Daily chart here to more easily detail price levels. Prior State: Selloff from mid-December bounced near 234. A Bullish Engulfing Pattern was confirmed on 12/27. Current State: Price has retraced 38.2% of the selloff from the October high to the December low. A move to 264 would introduce price to a prior congestion...

positionforex Jan 3, 2019

Prior State: The AUD/USD has been falling for most of 2018 until a rally in early November brought the price outside of the down channel. Current State: Price has been rangebound since the channel breakout between .7050 and .7325. While we have no trade open, we have theorized the possibility a base is forming, and higher prices are the next move. Future...

positionforex Jan 2, 2019

Prior State: Since February 2017 the Euro has been steadily climbing against the Canadian Dollar. Current State: Price retraced approximately 50% of the rise from 2/27/17 to 3/12/18 (1.3827 to 1.6089 at 50% is 1.4996) The rally above 1.5475 confirmed a resumption of the rally. Future Forecast: Today's massive selloff is bringing the price near the targeted...

positionforex Updated  Jan 2, 2019

The 100% Fibo extension of 1.2527, 1.3390, and 1.2780 has played out and hit our first target. Price stalled in this area in the two sessions prior to today but today's move of ~.5% up gives reason to believe this rally could continue higher to the next target of 1.38. Oil prices would need to remain weak and an end to the US Government shutdown could be a...

positionforex Updated  Jan 2, 2019

Prior State: Long-term downtrend since June 2017 has been in effect will multiple countertrend rallies. Current State: Price has stalled with multiple bearish reversal candles at prior resistance near .9150. Future Forecast: Resistance at .9150 will hold and with any rise in Crude Oil prices momentum will turn to the downside. Below .8925 will confirm a...

positionforex Dec 27, 2018

EUR/JPY has been on a steady pattern of lower highs and lower lows. First target at 126.50 has already been hit and 125.00 is next if momentum continues its current path. If a "risk-off" continues and potentially accelerates the downward channel could accelerate and reach the third target of 115.75. Need to see price action with momentum break the 125 close to...

positionforex Dec 26, 2018

Today's huge equity rally changes the weekly candlestick to a Long Legged Doji and threatens the downward channel. Still looking for a close below 112 to confirm the next leg down has started. Fibo extension still marks 110 as the next target.

positionforex Dec 20, 2018

After a massive rally throughout November NZD/JPY is now poised to move lower. On 12/3 a Bearish Piercing Pattern formed with the fall from the 78.63 level. By taking out the low of 11/26 at 76.26 and breaking the 75.00 support/resistance level momentum is now to the downside. The first target is 73.00 assuming we finish the week below 76.50.