powderpc

powderpc

Very clearly, USDMXN is testing the upper bound resistance of a long running channel that has began around the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994. Historically, this has been tested three times and given the underlying fundamentals related to inflation expectations between Mexico and the US and the risk reward of selling USDMXN as a carry trade it seems improbable for...

powderpc Updated 

I've never charted TSLA using my relatively new charting skills so I thought I'd check it out. Remarkably, charting Tesla reveals a lot of predictable price action. First thing that's noticeable about Tesla is that despite growing losses and a lack of profitability Tesla has remained more or less in a bullish channel since the beginning. Despite a great deal of...

powderpc Updated 

After the fairly strong reversal signals above $9.7k-$9.8k with 4 hr and even some 1 D RSI divergence we saw a fairly swift breakdown below $9.8k which was more bearish than I expected but not totally unexpected given the overall weakness in sentiment and volume combined with the strong resistance at $10k and the longer duration divergence indicators being...

powderpc Updated 

Bitcoin has been moving within a large descending wedge since March 28 with a "bottoming" from April 1 through April 6 of roughly $6500. While 1 D RSI convergence hasn't been signaled strongly enough to suggest that this is really the "bottom," and Google Search Trends have shown continued sentiment weakness, the breakout from the descending wedge was extremely...

powderpc Updated 

We're a bit less than 9 hours away from the next candle close (UTC) and 1 D RSI Convergence has signaled from the previous low of ~$6900 on Feb. 6 to 54 days later, but we may not get confirmation for possibly 2 candles before a big momentum reversal. Clearly, at $6500, momentum and volume have been weak, which suggests we could see an eventual and stronger...

powderpc

This recent dip helped me clarify several trading principles and strategies. Notably, 5 min RSI convergence and divergence have proven to be effective at predicting reversals on short duration trades in a market with strong liquidity/volume, sideways price action (i.e. near a bottom, top, or clear pattern forming), and strong momentum. I had to publish this on a...

powderpc Updated 

At about $9k we're seeing some heavy resistance as price is hitting the 50 DMA and a zone of heavy resistance between $9000 and $9200 which requires breaking above the 50 DMA and then through the 50% fib retrace from the recent move from $5900 to $11800. We can see that price has broken above the slightly descending upper channel trendline formed March 7. This...

powderpc Updated 

Without doing any wild TA here you can see that ETH is interacting with a major trendline and a dip below here pulled by BTC price action could be extremely bad. On the flip side if BTC is forming a bottom then this could mean extremely positive buying opportunities. Generally, the entire alt market is watching for a BTC reversal so I'd avoid any positions unless...

powderpc Updated 

There seems to be a lot of apocalyptic talk about Bitcoin going back to $6k and this seems to be a potential confirmation bias that could lead a lot of people to miss out on yet another opportunity. When everyone was screaming inverse Head & Shoulders with an expectation the market would just magically blow up again to $16k, the market was clearly running out of...

powderpc Updated 

We can see that on a technical basis the market is stuck in a symmetrical triangle and inside another possible symmetrical triangle. The predicted movement is up based on 4 hr and 1 day RSI but as you can see from 45 min RSI a fairly even amount of tight support and resistance between $9000 and $9300 has developed and volume is dropping off considerably as this...

powderpc Updated 

Opera has introduced the first crypto mining blocker built into the browser. This gives me more confidence about Monero moving forward as these botnets see some "costs" to doing business. Eventually ordinary miners will have a shot as all browsers implement these methods. If anything Monero has helped the overall network improve its security with the most...

powderpc Updated 

As the market continues to reflect a bearish trend with the failure of the inverse H&S to break the downward trend line, we're increasingly likely to see a convergence between the 50 day SMA (note I use as "source" the "low" and not the "close" which is arbitrary) and 200 day EMA. Combined with the convergence of two major trendlines we're basically getting the...

powderpc Updated 

The fundamentals for crypto haven't significantly improved in recent weeks but the market has stabilized itself perhaps due to some enthusiasm for hard forks like Litecoin Cash and a lack of significant adverse news (aka FUD) and no huge ripple effects from equity market volatility. Jeffrey Gundlach recently came out and said that Bitcoin was acting like a proxy...

powderpc Updated 

Looking at charts you can get a strong sense of price action based on the understanding of healthy market behavior. But what if the market behavior is fundamentally unhealthy? No amount of technical analysis would have predicted that Enron would have gone to zero. And this is why it's critically important to understand the presence of systemic risks, that is,...

powderpc Updated 

During this last draw down in Bitcoin markets from $10k to $5.8k I learned a lot about algorithmic trading bots ("algo bots"). These bots often are used by "whales" given that a profitable algo bot will allow you to make a lot of money and accumulate a lot of cryptocurrency that can be used to influence price action. This puts the ordinary trader at a huge...

powderpc Updated 

Most people here are reading a bunch of charts and that's fair, but if all you understand are charts then you won't understand the most critical, basic elements of how to fairly value a cryptocurrency. Don't fall for some of the nonsense that others propose as guidance for how to invest in cryptoassets. These people are obviously ignorant clowns here to entertain...

powderpc Updated 

In the most recent BTCUSD dip I made a series of mistakes that put me in a slightly nervous position overall, but still generally favorable. Over a series of trades I managed to find myself in a position with an average buy price of $7486.13. Trading profitably on the dips I reduced this average buy price to $7348.21. Throughout this series of trades I had...

powderpc Updated 

Tradingview makes it easy to plot out risk reward if you can't intuit it the correct price level to exit at. In general, you want to make trades that have greater than 1:1 risk:reward. If your risk of loss is equal to your risk of gain then it's not worthwhile to make a trade as your probability based profit will be zero. Looking here at the recent dip, assuming...