priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market does not have much more room inside the current structure. I’m favoring a huge bear trend tomorrow but until we strongly close a 1h bar below 21100, that bias does not make much sense. Lower highs and higher lows. Wait for the breakout. current market cycle: trading range or continuation of the bear trend -...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I always refuse to interpret more into trading ranges than necessary. We have nested triangles. Just wait for the breakout. I have a bad feeling for bears, since today’s bad news could not push markets down, always a bad sign for bears. current market cycle: bear trend valid until bear trend line broken but trading...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We will likely have a big breakout tomorrow or Wednesday. Right now I still favor the bears since we are in a bear trend but if we print 21701, it’s over and market is neutral again on higher time frames. Today’s high 21266 is not the best stop for shorts but if we just continue down from US close, it will have to...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Lower low major trend reversal or continuing of the bear trend? This is the question we will get an answer to most likely when futures open in a couple of hours. My assumption is that we will see a mind boggling rally for the MAG7 while small caps will be crashed like there is no tomorrow. Orange face man want the...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big gap above up to 21500 and decent bullish island gap below down to 19950. My base case is that we will be in a big trading range for a long time but given that the past 2 weeks were one of the wildest and most erratic the stock markets have ever seen, it’s a tough guess. The lower bound is the bull trend line from...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big bear trend line is holding up and market printed a lower high. I expect lower highs and higher lows for much more time. By now you should know that I don’t make up stuff about trading ranges and a triangle is a form of a trading range. You buy low, sell high and scalp. Mark the 30% of the upper and lower bound of...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Cleanest breakout retest of the big bull trend line from 2024-08 one could ask for. I highly doubt bulls want to buy this above 21000 tomorrow but these moves are so unlikely that anything can happen. Only rough guesses from me here. I will only look for shorts. current market cycle: trading range more likely than...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: W3 was climactic and there could be a possible W5. Right now we are in W4 and the given range will likely be respected and not broken. I will most likely mean reverse to 20000 over the next days. current market cycle: strong bear - W3 concluded - W5 possibly down to 16000 if we get one but W3 could have been the end...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. #mcl1 - wti crude oil futures comment: Strong momentum for the bears but I have zero interest in selling where all bears for the past 2 years lost money. Not much more to say about this. Wait for strong buying and join but market will likely do some more testing of 60 first and then sideways before we can go higher. Anything...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: W3 has likely concluded and I expect the same price action as for W2. Market is respecting technicals precisely. Look at the chart and the obvious numbers and lines. We can always do an over- or undershoot but for now I don’t think looking for shorts after two days of crashing make any sense. current market cycle:...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: By now you could likely be crash-news-fatigued and I get it. I keep it short and technical. My base assumption is that all markets are heading for their 50% retracements from the covid lows. If no bigger positive news will stop it, we will get there with the next leg down. For now market is tough since 20500 is...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. #btcusd - bitcoin comment: The move I was writing and have been expecting for multiple weeks started today and 75k is the target. I won’t repeat all of it. Chart is clear and now it’s on bears to make meaningful lower lows. Below 70k you will likely see some panic. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k -...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 18200 is the next huge support and it’s likely that we get there tomorrow and there I would conclude my W3 thesis. Doing another red day into the weekend seems most reasonable because who the duck wants to hold on to longs in the current environment? current market cycle: strong bear - W3 ongoing - target is...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: This is the event bears have prayed for, full blown trade war and this market is not positioned for any downside risk. Let’s see where we close this week. Below 21500 would be amazing but let’s close below 22000 first. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21800 - 23000 bull case: Tbh, best bulls can...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear trend line from 20536 broken again and market is probing higher to remain in a trading range at the lows. Bears need lower lows below 19300 tomorrow and bulls want to continue with the higher highs and higher lows. As long as the big bear trend line from 20452 holds, bears remain in control and see this as a...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add on top of the tl;dr. Bear trend line is the do or die moment for bears tomorrow. Has to stay below 22600 or we go higher again. Very important day tomorrow, which will set the impulse for the next weeks. News could somewhat help the bears, since the global trade war is raging. current market cycle:...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Textbook breakout below the bear flag and market is likely on it’s way testing previous lows below 80000. My target 75000 or even 70000 remain the same. What would bulls need to stop this? I highly doubt they can produce a bull surprise above 90000, so if they would go sideways above 80000 for the next 1-3 days, it...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely...