priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market has not traded above prior day’s high for 9 sessions. Can we do 10 and accelerate down? I would love it but it’s getting a bit unlikely without a better pullback. I can not see bulls coming back from this tbh but I have been wrong about this before. Bears need a big breakout below and accelerate down. Bulls...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big up, big down, big confusion. Market rallies 500 points yesterday and today we get a late bear breakout and close below 22000. Traps on both sides and I am not believing in bear strength what so ever. I see this as a triangle and 22000 is the middle. Chop chop. current market cycle: trading range key levels:...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is much weaker than sp500 and nq, which is always unusual. We are staying below 23724, which is good for the bears but we are in a weak bull channel and making higher highs and higher lows since the Friday sell spike. Both sides make money and market is currently in balance around 23560ish. Clear invalidation...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Last week I printed another potential two-legged correction where the C would print a new ath. Bulls were to weak to even retest 112k and 110k was all they got. Now I do think there are many more reasons that this will be the mother of all doubles tops than any arguments for the bulls exist, how they could print a new...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Good week for oil bulls but still a lower high below the April high 78.1. Now what? If this buying is the real thing and market is expecting higher prices for longer, the pullback will stay above 70. If bulls do that, we can expect at least a second leg up to retest 75+ or even 80+. We are seeing a full on war between...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: I do think we will continue to print lower highs from 22094. Very clear invalidation price for that thesis is a print above 21855. 21000 is my target for the next days/weeks. A strong daily bear close below the daily 20ema around 21450 would be my confirmation. Above 21855 we continue to chop sideways and could retest...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Bears leaving no doubt who is in control of the market now. Volume is picking up on the move down and bear bars are getting bigger. I expect a bit more fighting around 23500 but once we break below, 23000 is the next target and also likely a gap close down to 22600. I have drawn my least bearish wave thesis on the chart...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral around 21900. 21700 was the lowest I expected and we printed 21716.5. Weekly close around 21900 is the most likely outcome for me. We have no acceptance above 21900 and none below 21800 as well. A trend day tomorrow would surprise me. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21700 - 22100 bull...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Much more reasons to buy below 23900 than to sell. I do think bulls showed strength today by printing 24193 and this could become a lower low, major trend reversal. Long stops have to be 23750 but there is decent chance could get there as well. I still think they will fail at the gap again and market will close the...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Range is 21500 - 22000 for a week now. Neutral but selling new highs and buying every pullback has been profitable for quite a while now. It will end some day but likely not today. Bulls finally want the 22000 print and after so many tries they still could not print it. It’s painful to watch. Fading the extremes was...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Wedge bull flag, I expect 24000 and 24500 to get hit this week, everything above and below those prices would be a surprise to me. We are also forming a triangle with the bull trend line and I expect bulls to get the breakout above. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23700 - 24500 bull case:...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Last week I wrongly wrote that earnings season will start in June, sorry about that. It’s mid July. So what to do at 24300? Market finds acceptance above 24000 but we have made 500 points to the upside in the past 3 weeks. At some point bulls will let it go and reality will set in. Market is holding above the daily 20ema...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Same as last week, markets are all very similar. Nq is also in a wedge right under the big round number. I doubt bears can prevent the bulls from printing 22000 but bulls have certainly tried long enough now. Either they get it next week, or it won’t happen for couple of weeks/months. current market cycle: trading range...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Time to be very cautious as a bear and hopeful as a bull. 3 clear legs down and the third could not make a new low. Now the market closed at the weekly high and it’s a fitting place for a reversal. 65 should be the highest bears should allow it. If bulls get follow-through beyond, this is a buy with stop 59.5. The target...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: 3 legs down, bull flag trend line break but confirmation is only above 106840. It’s still much more bullish than bearish, since bears could not close the gap down to the April high 97915. Market expects a re-test of 110000 or higher and this breakout of the bull flag is as textbook perfect as it gets. Only a daily close...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Good day for the bears but if you look at the daily or 4h chart, do you really want to sell this? Of course not. Most traders will wait and see where the bears fail to long this for another try at 22000. Technically we had at least 3 legs up in this wedge and 21936 qualifies as a top. I would still not sell this yet....

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: When in doubt, zoom out. Market is leaving gaps below and daily bar closed at the high (at least for futures). Bulls will likely get another spike above 24430 to run the stops but I don’t know if they can get more. Buying above 24200 is there but lackluster but that’s still enough for the bulls because bears are not...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls buy every dip and so should you, until it stops working. Clear target above and also clear invalidation level below us. Trade the wedge. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20700 - 22000 bull case: Bulls will likely get a third leg up tomorrow and if they want it bad, we could accelerate upwards...