priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Look at the daily chart. Absolutely in balance is what this is. Please see my weekly outlook for more info. comment: Did not change anything from my weekly chart since market is doing nothing. You don’t see a market printing 6 of those bars very often. Be prepared for the breakout. current market cycle: ...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - More continuation of the expected. Bears trying to get lower with some spikes but enough bulls are happy to buy it. We will have a breakout either tomorrow or Thursday because one side will give up. As of now I favor the bulls for another leg up to kill the last shorts. (does not apply to DJI for example,...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bull channel from my weekly update was not steep enough. 2700 next. Only look for longs. Can’t stop, won’t stop. comment: Gold broke above my drawn patterns, again. Unreal strength but not unexpected. In my weekly I wrote you should only look for longs. How high can this get? 2700 is almost a given at this...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me. ...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes. We have learned nothing...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. bitcoin Quote from last week: comment: Doing the weekly chart this week. Clear contraction visible and there is no magic to see here. I won’t make up stuff where there is none. Market is clearly confused where it wants to go and no side has an advantage. The triangle will break out soon again and I can only see btc falling...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Daily bars looking weak but it does not matter, it’s a small pullback bull trend and it’s going higher. Not a single bar went below the previous so we are max bullish. 72 is very likely get hit on Monday and the first bigger target is 73. There market decides if this bigger bear trend is still alive or...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls got a clean breakout but they need follow through on Monday/Tuesday. The current channel fit’s nicely but we only know market is respecting it when we see a pullback. If this breakout is strong, bulls would not let the market fall below 2600 again. A weaker trend would pull back to the daily ema around...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: New ath but market rejected it with -300+ points. Bulls are still inside nested bull wedges and a big bull channel on the weekly/monthly chart. I favor bulls as long as the current bull wedge is alive but we could test down to 18500 on Monday. Bulls should not let it get below 18400. Above 19000 I expect another...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - I said if bulls get above 61500, they are favored for 64000+. High of the day was 63848. Next target for them is 65000 and if bears fail there, we will see 67000/68000 again. Right now it’s still a triangle on the daily chart and bulls had 3 pushes up. Slightly favoring the bears if they come around tomorrow...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Big news first. There is no reason why markets could not continue higher. Tis what I wrote yesterday. So you have been warned I guess. Indexes - Huge gap up and go on most markets during the Globex and EU session. Right now we are mostly trading between the 15m and 1h 20ema and that’s my absolute worst spot to...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bull trap above the bull wedge as I wrote. Bears confirmed it with the close today. I look for shorts tomorrow and expect 2560 or lower to be hit tomorrow. Anything below 2540 would be a huge surprise and we could see an acceleration down to 2500. If bulls reverse this and trade back above 2610, bears will most...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Strong second leg up (daily tf) and bulls even tried to break above the bear flag but for now I doubt the breakout will be succesful. We are right in the middle of the broad bear channel and odds are 50/50 for either side. Above 72 odds rise for the bulls and below 69.5 I favor the bears again. comment: In...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many new highs but also a deep pullback and we closed around the middle of the daily range. Are we smarter than yesterday? We know that bulls remain in control since we are trading above most higher tf ema but bears also sold off for 1% today on the sp500. I keep my neutral stance and wait for the FOMC...