priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Gigantic bear gap with Globex open and market closed 370 ticks down or a bit more than 5%. 1h 20ema is resistance until clearly broken. Bulls are in a world of hurt here. 66.5 is the next lower target before we go for 65. Bulls need anything above 68 again. comment: Market has now went from doing 18% upwards,...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra : 4h chart shows a triangle if you adjust the bull trend line from August. It will break out on Monday and I clearly favor the bears to break below and go for 19000. Above 19650 I am wrong and we could see the leg up to 20000. Bear confirmation is only below 19300. Until the breakout, you can either wait or...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Clear two legged pullback on the 4h chart. Could be enough for the bulls to take control again and go for 2800 on Monday/Tuesday. If they fail below 2780 again, we could see a more complex pullback down to 2700. Market is clearly still max bullish and I doubt we see better selling until we hit 2800 or even...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Dead zone 70 - 72. Best not to trade it and wait for the breakout. I have no opinion on who wins it. For me to believe the bullish breakout to be good, I need to see follow through selling above 73, otherwise it could still be just a retest of the previous support. Quote from last week: comment: ...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: 65000 - 69000 dead zone for me. I was wrong with my bear thesis so far and doing nothing right now is the wisest choice. Below 65000 bears are favored and above 70000, we likely print new ath. Quote from last week: comment: Neutral I called it and neutral it still is. Market continues to oscillate around...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the lows as was expected but they could not close the day with a strong bull bar. Instead we printed weak bull bars or inside bars. Are we any smarter today? Not much. Both sides are to weak to show a clear direction and so we mostly move sideways. Bears do not have any arguments after not...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the lows as was expected but they could not close the day with a strong bull bar. Instead we printed weak bull bars or inside bars. Are we any smarter today? Not much. Both sides are to weak to show a clear direction and so we mostly move sideways. Bears do not have any arguments after not...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Big bear day on most indexes but they did not accomplish enough to flip the markets to always-in-short. I do think the odds of a bullish reversal into the weekend are much greater than continued selling. Many markets are at perfect support and buying this is a no-brainer for many bulls. We still have bullish...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Bears did good but need a daily close below 65000 to confirm the bull trap. Right now it’s a tough spot to trade since daily 20ema was support and bears need to keep it below 68000. Probably best to sit on hands and wait for a breakout of this range. Still think bears are slightly favored to break below and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways again. No deeper meaning to it. Nasdaq has not touched the daily 20ema over the last days but is creeping higher again. Lows are bought so it’s reasonable to expect bears to give up unless something unexpected happens (e.g. very bad earnings but the probability is very low). Bull wedge has not a lot...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways movement with some lower lows but closes were mostly weak. Neutral going into tomorrow, since both sides can get the breakout. Market is still controlled by bulls until we close below the daily 20ema and those are far away. dax futures comment: Look at the daily or 4h chart, cause the lower time...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Trading range 68 - 70.6 continues. Neutral as it gets in between. Don’t over analyse this range. comment : Bulls fighting for 70 and there is a chance this today was a lower low major trend reversal and we go up from here. Validation is only a daily close above 71, so don’t be early like me last week....

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls nowhere to be found. We are near the minor bull trend line starting from the September low below 64 and it is more likely that this trend line holds and we do not go below the October low 65.74. Can you long this based on that assumption? I would not. Wait for bigger buying pressure and break of...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: 4 consecutive good bull bars last week and we are on our way to 2800. I have two trend lines pointing to at least 2760, so the last thing I want to be here is bearish. Clearly W5 of this rally and we will likely see bigger profit taking into year end or early next year. Quote from last week: comment: Longer...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 4 different upper bull trend lines for multiple wedges and all are kinda valid. You just never know which one will be most respected by the algo’s. 6000 is the target, much more likely we get there before a bigger correction. Don’t try to be the first bear on this. Quote from last week: comment: Two decent...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: We are in W5 and no idea how high it will go. 20000 is the obvious choice and only 300 points higher on xetra. Until we hit that level, it’s hard to get bearish. The bull channel is also perfectly leading up to that price and who tf am I to deny technical patterns eh. Only longs for me are on strong momentum and...