priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 16% in 5 days. Alrighty then. No matter your religious beliefs, you can not buy and pray for higher prices. Buying near the 1h 20ema was profitable since last Tuesday but the rally is so climactic that we will very likely see a bigger pullback soon that will be driven by traders taking profits and reducing their...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: 2640 - 2700 is the range. Play it. Bulls bought the trend line on Friday and are free to continue the meltup. Above 2680 I expect another try of 2700 and a possible 3rd leg (W5) up to 2800 or higher. Bears need something below 2640 for maybe retesting 2600 (the bigger bull trend line is around that price) but...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Strong week by the bears and 60000 held as expected. Bulls are currently not able to close a daily bar above the daily 20ema or 62000. As long as that’s the case, I expect at least a second leg down to 55000 or lower. Bulls need something above 63000 for me to doubt my bear case. Quote from last week: ...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - Look at the xetra 1h chart because it’s clearer there than on futures. 4 legs down and we have not touched the 1h 20ema on xetra since Tuesday. Strong follow through selling and there is an open gap down to 18928. Since we are seeing continues episodes of buying, I do expect this gap to get closed on a spike and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - 3 clear legs down and today’s selling could not reach the lower bear trend line, which showed weakness by the bears. We are close enough to the daily 20ema to expect bulls scaling into longs and hoping for a retest of 19400/19500 or higher. 1h 20ema held today too but I expect it to be broken tomorrow. Below...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bulls now touched the bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and market is making higher lows and lower highs. Means contraction and we will see a breakout tomorrow. I favor the bulls to retest 2700 or higher. Only bearish below 2645. comment : Bears tried and failed. Bulls bought the bull trend line and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears tried and sold off for decent points but the close was not bearish enough to hurt the bulls or make them nervous. Bears are only able to get spike selling going but no or bad follow through. Neutral going into tomorrow since most daily bear bars have big tails below them. Bulls are still in BTFD mode...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bullish outside bar with big tails above and below. Still a strong day by the bulls but they could not get above last weeks high 72.39 which shows they are not that strong. 50% pb is around 68 so market is neutral there. We are at 70 and I expect it to be bigger resistance. Bulls want 73 to test the upper bear...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - Bulls closed one of the “weakest” months above the bull wedge and managed to keep the big bull gap open. Can’t be anything but bullish on that close if we don’t see a big bear surprise tomorrow. comment : If bears manage to stay below 19560, that would be really good. That is the breakout area from Friday we...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin - 66000 could have been another lower high and we trade back down to 50000 next. Unclear since bulls got above the August high but have not yet touched the bear trend line from the ath. Anyhow, huge tails above and below the monthly bars. Big trading range on the weekly and monthly chart. Favoring the bears...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Bulls made the higher high above 65000 and they continue to be in control of the market. Next target is the big bear trend line around 68000. That trend line held 5 times now since April, I do expect it to continue to hold. If it does not, we print a new ath with very high probability. Below 64000, market...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Bulls made the higher high above 65000 and they continue to be in control of the market. Next target is the big bear trend line around 68000. That trend line held 5 times now since April, I do expect it to continue to hold. If it does not, we print a new ath with very high probability. Below 64000, market...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: 2700 proved to be a good spot for a pullback, which should go a bit lower than 2668. Breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620 are all valid targets for the bears. We will only know the strength of the pullback once we know where bears sell it again, so we can draw proper support and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Perfect bullish outlook last week and we can’t be anything but bullish going into next week as well. 5 consecutive bull bars and Thu+Fri got bigger and closed almost at the high of the day. Market held above the 15m 20ema since Thursday EU open and this should be your guide for now. If we break below, 1h 20ema is...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: The big bull trend line from 2022-01 + 2022-07 is valid so far and forms a broad bull channel with the April + August low. We are at the top and until bulls can not break strongly above 5800, that price is resistance. Bears not doing enough, so I am neutral until one side gains momentum. Also continues inside...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still...