priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Bears did it today and bulls will probably wait for 54000/55000 to start buying again. Should not go above 59000 before 54000/55000. From yesterday: One side will give up tomorrow. Promise. comment: Promise kept. I also wrote that 62000 is my line in the sand for the bears. We are now in a decent...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Also trading range price action since we closed 8 points above the open price, so many parallels to dax. Market is near the big bear trend line around 5500 and the big round number is the most obvious magnet currently. Market wants to get there desperately and a bit above for an easy liquidity...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Another grind higher and most markets are at big round numbers and near their daily 20ema. Tomorrow one side will give and I have no opinion who will win this. I think it’s absolutely 50/50. dax futures comment: Expanding triangle nested inside the bull wedge right under 18000. Bears are in do or die mode...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well tl;dr Bitcoin - Market is currently in balance 57500 - 62000. No more magic to it. We are in the 7th consecutive day where Bitcoin could not close above the daily 20ema. One side will give up tomorrow. comment: Last bull trend line is broken and market is moving sideways since last Thursday. Bears keeping it below...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - My bearish bias got obliterated today. While dax is still 100 points below the daily 20ema, sp500 and nasdaq closed above theirs. Overall much stronger buying than expected and what bears should have allowed imo. Maybe it was front running CPI or a solid short squeeze, it does not matter. All patterns...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bears showed signs of life, rejecting 80 with decent selling. Still an inside bar to Monday and bulls bought it at the bull trend line. Below 78 bears start hoping again, but it’s more reasonable to expect more upside. At the very least a retest of 80 and if bears are strong, they try to keep that resistance. ...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Huge bull breakout on low volume. Bulls went above 2500 with ease and next target is a higher high again above 2522. As of now it’s still a triangle and if bears appear tomorrow, odds favor a trade back down. You can’t get bullish above 2500 other than scalps. comment: Clear breakout above the previous...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Bears will get a second leg down but it can take more time to go sideways. Whole week was basically going nowhere and as neutral as can be so you can’t go into next week with a huge bias. Both sides have valid arguments to reach prices above and below Friday’s close. Quote from last week: comment: ...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Last weeks update is still worth reading because it was so on point and most prices given are still valid. Bears need to keep it below 5400/5450 and bulls want above so the bulls would have retraced much more than the 50% they currently have. Also neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: bear...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this. Quote from last week: comment: Clear...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Bears got below 50000 but bulls still kept the bullish gap to 52000 open. I still think this was W1 of the new bear trend and we are currently in W2. Pullback has to stay below 63000ish though. There is currently a small bear gap 61697 - 63987 and that should stay open if this is a bear trend. If not, more...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls kept the wedge alive which surprised me. Consecutive bull bars on the daily chart now but only a slightly higher high. Odds favor a reversal below 17800 for at least 17600. I think there is a decent chance we puke during the Globex session again. Above 17820 I am probably wrong and the bull breakout could...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2400 - 2500 bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 350 points up and then 260 points down. Up move was stronger than I thought and I did not trade it but I nailed the down move. The bull wedge is broken and bulls might retest the breakout at 17600 but that could be the high for tomorrow. I still expect the lows to be retested and today printed another nasty...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat...