priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Last weeks update is still worth reading because it was so on point and most prices given are still valid. Bears need to keep it below 5400/5450 and bulls want above so the bulls would have retraced much more than the 50% they currently have. Also neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: bear...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this. Quote from last week: comment: Clear...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Bears got below 50000 but bulls still kept the bullish gap to 52000 open. I still think this was W1 of the new bear trend and we are currently in W2. Pullback has to stay below 63000ish though. There is currently a small bear gap 61697 - 63987 and that should stay open if this is a bear trend. If not, more...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls kept the wedge alive which surprised me. Consecutive bull bars on the daily chart now but only a slightly higher high. Odds favor a reversal below 17800 for at least 17600. I think there is a decent chance we puke during the Globex session again. Above 17820 I am probably wrong and the bull breakout could...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2400 - 2500 bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 350 points up and then 260 points down. Up move was stronger than I thought and I did not trade it but I nailed the down move. The bull wedge is broken and bulls might retest the breakout at 17600 but that could be the high for tomorrow. I still expect the lows to be retested and today printed another nasty...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral between 17300 and 17650. Market is trying to find a bottom in a big trading range. As long as market stays below 17900, it’s max bearish. I expect a slow grind to retest the lows over the next 1-2 days and those lows will most likely hold so we can move much more sideways. current market cycle: bear...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning. comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling,...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh....

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr I said that below 62300, it’s over for the bulls and also that the down move will probably be faster than the up move. Both happened this week and we will make new lows over the next weeks. As I’m writing this we are at 57817 and falling like a rock. Will look for shorts only from here on and any pullback will...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Yesterday I was neutral until one side clearly gains control again and boi did the bears deliver today. 600 point drop from Wednesday high and a close below 18200. This is the biggest bear bar for many months and will be part of W1/leg1 of the new bear trend. We will most likely make new lows below 17800 next week....

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls are absolutely fumbling it and their chances of going above 70000 again are below 25% imo. The best they can pray for right now is to stay above 62300 and the 50% pb, so the bull gap stays open and they trade sideways between 62300 - 68000. If market drops below 62300, we are most likely already in the next...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: July is behind us, so let’s take a look at the daily chart since the weekly and monthly do not help in any way, analysing this. For dax it’s easy today because we absolutely have no Idea when it wants to go where, since my calculated 50% of this range is 18520 and market closed July at 18608. Absolutely neutral. We...