priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well, prev. outlook from 2024-03-13 Quote from my #3 Tesla update: "tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish." and the second quote: "bear case: Nothing bullish about this stock at all. Bears are in full control and selling...

priceactiontds

Good evening and I hope you are well. Today bears actually showed up and bulls began the profit taking. Very refreshing to see some two sided trading and not making more ath. I do think for all indexes the selling was strong enough to get another leg down, which then is mostly a third leg or W5 and markets are or will then trade at bigger support prices, trend...

priceactiontds

Good Morning and I hope you are well. WTI Crude Oil bull case: Still inside the bull channel but market get’s more two sided trading. I can’t see another strong leg up but more trading range price action between 80-85. 85 Should be the max here and the very big triangle will probably play out over more months. Upside is probably very limited here. bear...

priceactiontds

Good day, I hope you are well and enjoyed the holidays. This is my post from before US Session open today, sorry for posting late here. overall market comment tl;dr monthly update: The following are my very rough guesses what could happen over the next 6 months and why this trend is on it’s last leg Q1 earnings will show weakness and market stops making new...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures bull case: Bulls got the more up but barely. The high today was 3 points below the ath and that qualifies as a double top. Do we trade down from here? I don’t know. If bulls can keep it above 5300, it’s as bullish as it gets. Many support lines below on the chart and bears not doing enough to make...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. Gold Quote from my weekly post: short term: Neutral. Bulls could break above 2200 again and bears could also break below 2140. bull case: Market seems bullish enough for 2220 test again and i think it this time it will break again for retest 2247. I’d be surprised if we get big sell volume around 2220 again. Market...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. I was totally already writing the update with the most annoying small trading range price action in mind (obviously not the dax) but then the bears used the power hour to extend the range downwards. If anything i’d guessed we close near the open. Interesting going into tomorrow and if bears can generate follow through or at...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. Let me start today with a beautiful quote, which is often repeated in some form or another and indefinitely more people do not grasp. As we’ve discussed, every security is a claim on some set of cash flows that will be delivered to investors over time. Yet at any given moment, the only two things that determine the price of...

priceactiontds

Good day and i hope you are well. From my weekly outlook yesterday... bitcoin bull case: Bulls bought the weekly low below 61000 big time and produced a big enough reversal bar to make me think that they can get a measured move from it and that would also align with a retest of the highs or making another ath above 74000. They need to get follow through...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets want green across the board and that means acceptance. Bears can’t deny it because they are not doing anything to stop this so higher prices are the higher probability here, no matter how overbought everything is. The only possibility i can dream up currently is that this quarter was so utterly overbought, that we...

priceactiontds

Good Morning and i hope you are well. Last week the dax bulls created a potential exhaustive very big island gap, US indexes ranged at the highs, gold ranged after the uber bullish move up and oil did exactly what i have been writing for many weeks now. No matter how you want to draw it, Nasdaq made lower lows, printed 2 consecutive weekly bear bars (last time...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets another selling round today, after the much higher than expected US PPI created big bear bars that were quickly sold, just to break below again. Bears then could not keep the momentum going and most markets ranged afterwards. Oil did exactly what i said it would do for many days now and the 82 target is within...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil bull case: Bulls stayed above the daily 20ema which is around 78, they bought where they had to and today was strong enough for at least a second leg, which would bring us back to 81, which is last weeks high. I still expect 82 in the near future. If we get a third leg, that’s the obvious target. The fact...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish. Last week i wrote the following: "bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. bull case: Everything above 2100 is uber bullish because most long term bears already covered, so we could range much more at the highs. Bulls see the sell off by the bears today as weak and they keep the buying pressure on. If you look at the 1h chart, we currently have wild swings up and down on some 1h candles. Some are...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. The FX markets are not exciting, since most central banks are doing nothing but waiting currently. Short update it is… eur/usd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good...

priceactiontds

Good day and i hope you are well. There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend...

priceactiontds

Good evening and i hope you are well. Today bulls got another very strong day and either retested the highs or made new ones. ECB paused as expected but markets did not care one bit. Just bullish price action since EU open. Tomorrow more macroschmackro data which could lead to big spikes on a choppy week. I can not rule out market will interpret numbers bullish...