quantmaven

quantmaven

There's some clarity in the Bitcoin count: Bitcoin appears to have finished a flat structure 3-3-5 as its secondary wave 4, yesterday morning. The strong move since yesterday is most likely impulsive, which would correspond to the start of a secondary wave 5 that would bring the price all the way up to 55K. The news that Coinbase would increase its crypto holdings...

quantmaven

The ETH/BTC Spread serves as a risk on/risk off barometer for the crypto markets. The Spread broke the giant triangle in mid-July with an intermediary wave 1 and is now finishing an intermediary wave 2, which could cause ETH to underperform in the near-term (couple days only). However, a powerful intermediary wave 3 is around the corner and could make ETH...

quantmaven

Some technical analysts are calling for that "C" wave that would make Bitcoin plunge from current levels to sub 30K... The US Yield Curve says this is not going to happen. The US Yield Curve is defined as the difference between 10-year treasuries and 2-year treasuries. When it goes up, it means that economic growth and inflation are strong and vice-versa. There is...

quantmaven

In my previous post, I expected Ethereum to reach my target of 2,900 and it did today as expected. However I noticed the crypto market and the steepening of the yield curve is supporting a stronger ascend. I present you my new Elliott wave count, which will result in a parabolic rise of Ethereum. In this new count, we finished a primary wave 2 that took the shape...

quantmaven

The yield curve, defined as the difference between US 10-year treasuries yield and US 2-year treasuries yield, is an excellent predictor of the next intraday moves in the crypto market. If it is going higher, it means that long rates are increasing faster than short rates and that translates to strong economic activity and higher inflation. Crypto markets love...

quantmaven

Here's the long-term Elliott wave count since we broke the giant triangle of cyclical wave 4. Now we are riding a cyclical wave V that should show a serious decoupling between Ethereum and Bitcoin. I expect both to rise, but for ETH to decouple three times the ETH/BTC ratio from its last month low. This means that this might prove to be the most feverish altcoin...

quantmaven

Solana has the potential to reach as high as 44 in the near term, to reach the top of its dynamic resistance shown in blue. It seems like the upward movement has begun.

quantmaven

Ethereum appears to be forming an ending diagonal in the hourly chart, that could nonetheless still push the price to 2900 from its current level of 2775.If it goes higher than 2900 then this count is invalidated and it's even more bullish than I thought.

quantmaven

The intraday ETH/BTC spread serves as a risk on/risk off crypto barometer. It has been evolving inside this giant triangle since May and has officially broke to the upside over the two weeks. This confirms my call that the bear market is over and that we are now in another altcoin bull market. The spread has finished 5 waves up and is now correcting. Althought I...

quantmaven

When the Elliott wave count on Bitcoin and on Ethereum are difficult to read, I like to see what other altcoins are doing for clarity. Surprinsingly, Chainlink seems to have a very clear count to me. It has a last upward leg to $26 that began this morning with the break out of an intraday triangle. For the price to reach that level, it probably means that Ethereum...

quantmaven

I found a fractal that is very similar to what we are experiencing with the price of Bitcoin now and it appears to be extremely bullish. Please compare the bar pattern in blue to the right with the live pattern to the left. The wave 1 and wave 2, especially the wave 2 is identical. The Amazon drop of this week is similar to the previous drop (red), followed by a...

quantmaven

Finally my first intuition was correct, both BTC and ETH did a super long and boring ascending triangle. ETH broke its triangle this evening and may be on its way to reach 2525 tomorrow. I think there's still some juice left because BTC didn't break its triangle yet. Apparently BTC is still in a tight range because of option expirations tomorrow. If BTC breaks up,...

quantmaven

This morning I thought this was doing a truncation but after seeing the development after the FOMC meeting and a comment from a reader, there is visibly a last upward leg that could reach as high as 43k.

quantmaven

Bitcoin achieved a double top, aka truncation for Elliottists. Last night I thought it would do some ascending triangle but apparently the price decide to push higher faster than I expected. By doing so, it removes the upside potential. I would expect the price to correct to the yellow zone, which corresponds to a cluster of Fibonacci levels ranging from 38.2% to...

quantmaven

Bitcoin Dominance keeps going up, to a point where we have to recognize that this gigantic triangle might have bursted to the upside, which does not bode well for Altcoins. Usually when the market is bullish, Altcoins outperform Bitcoin when the market goes up and underperform when the market goes down. Here we have a strange situation: no matter if the market...

quantmaven

I'm trying to see what the bull scenario would look like for BTC, the only idea that seems to match what the price is doing is some ascending triangle currently forming up, which would explain the giration we have seen intraday. I would expect the volatility to decrease and perhaps price to exit and reach 45k. Keep in mind this is just a study, there is most...

quantmaven

In my previous technical analysis, I traced as if this triangle would have a bullish outcome, however the price action is starting to tell me otherwise. This scenario is not confirmed yet but I have to entertain the idea that it could happen, nevertheless. A scenario in which BTC outperforms ETH probably means that the bear market would resume. I don't like this...

quantmaven

Despite the latest rally, UNI touched its dynamic resistance only to pull back. UNI is still trading perfectly within its triangle. I'm trying to gather evidence about the hypothesis that this triangle (appearing on other crypto tokens as well) may turn out to be bearish. I'm still undecided because there's so much manipulation going on. Yesterday I was sure we...