redwingcoach

redwingcoach Updated 

People get panicky during corrections. Understandably, it can be nerve-wracking watching that stock you were sure was going up, going down. With the short term nature of the trading I'm doing, I don't worry that much, and especially when the corrections are garden variety ones. ROST is down almost 10% since Dec 5th. That's a normal correction, especially for...

redwingcoach Updated 

I don't care what your trading strategy is. In the end, if you're going to be successful at trading, it's about putting the odds in your favor. In my case, I like to put the odds WAYYYYYY in my favor. NASDAQ:FAST is one of my top stocks. Out of over 1,000 trades going back to the month before Black Monday in 1987, it has only produced 3 "losing" trades, and...

redwingcoach Updated 

In times of duress (and we can all agree this qualifies, I think), go back to a classic - the 200d MA. Not many stocks these days are trading above their 200d MA. Fewer still are in a business that is a built in hedge for inflation. I think these tariffs will be even more inflationary than they are recessionary and gold itself isn't quite a buy, so it's this...

redwingcoach Updated 

This is gonna be my 6th long idea on NVDA since Mid-December. Sorry if this is getting boring, but if it keeps working, why stop? It's not in a great pattern, but then again it wasn't the other 5 times, either. It has been in a downtrend since early December, but even stocks in downtrends don't have to go down in straight lines, and that's what I'm counting on...

redwingcoach Updated 

As those who follow me know, NASDAQ:MSFT is one of my favorite stocks to trade. It boast a return/day held that all-time is about 5x the average daily return for the market. I've literally never lost a trade involving MSFT, and I don't think this will be the first time. I'm fully expecting this one to take longer than the 9 trading days average, but it could...

redwingcoach Updated 

It's been a while since I posted an idea and to those who follow me I am sorry/not sorry. I didn't post for a few reasons: 1) I know that there are people who trade my ideas despite my warnings/disclaimers and I didn't like how the market was acting for the last couple of weeks (rightly, as it turns out) and I didn't want anyone else to get caught up in this...

redwingcoach Updated 

Nothing revolutionary here today, just an algo call on a stock that has been a solid performer for me historically. The rationale: --In a trading range longer term, but a short/medium term uptrend --right at short term support level --1313-1* W/L record with my algo (the 1 being 2 days ago and still would be open) --Avg. gain per trade is just over 2% ---Avg...

redwingcoach Updated 

There is a lot NOT to like about this trade. Yes, I see how far it has run. Yes, I see how fast it is falling. Yes, I see the gap from 96 to 102 that “must” be filled. Yes, the market overall has been unhelpful of late. I realize all of it and I wouldn’t necessarily recommend anyone follow me on this trade because of all of that. Here’s my “bull” case, such...

redwingcoach Updated 

ABT got some bad news today when a Missouri judge ruled there would be a retrlal regarding a court case involving ABT's baby formula, and the stock, which was already down 3 days in a row, got thumped. While I don't dismiss long term risk from that news, I'm not in this for the long haul. I will likely be long gone before anything happens with that retrial....

redwingcoach Updated 

As some of you may remember from back in early December, this is not my first idea for $FI. At the time, I hyped it up as a top performer for me, only to make a measly 0.27% on the trade in one day (which is still about 6x the avg daily return of the market). I was disappointed in the return, but VERY happy the next day when the CEO left and it dropped 6%...

redwingcoach Updated 

I trade almost exclusively long, and like everyone else who does, it’s harder to make a buck in this kind of environment. Swimming against the current is generally for salmon, not traders. But when you don’t have that choice, learning how to adjust your approach can make you a more profitable trader. Apologies for the baseball analogy here, but it’s like...

redwingcoach

Reddit is a little bit dangerous here. It is a very expensive stock with a short trading record that has run up massively of late. But it has pulled back, and is still within the confines of its regression channel. Ordinarily I don't trade stocks without large piles of trading data to fall back on. So why this time? First of all, the reason I don't is...

redwingcoach Updated 

FDS has disappointed the buy and hold crowd over the past year. In the last 356 days (it was a leap year), it has gone up a total of around .22% - basically nothing. It has given me a bunch of profitable trades, though, and it's giving me another one today. While it has done basically nothing overall, all those zig-zags along the way are where my excess return...

redwingcoach Updated 

The chart is a mess. There's really no support close by after the big post earnings pop. 5 red candles in 6 days. Trump tariffs taking effect this weekend...nobody in their right mind should take this trade. So why did I? A) I literally have only JNPR in my portfolio when it comes to tech, so I am underrepresented in the space. B) anyone who follows me...

redwingcoach Updated 

I just posted an idea about TSCO 4 days ago, and nothing has changed (except that I have 1 more profitable trade in it than I did 4 days ago), so forgive me for not going into micro detail about this one. I also posted another Idea about NYSE:J a few minutes ago that shares many features with this idea. This stock is down almost 12% since mid-October. But in...

redwingcoach

I chose J as my public idea for the day for a lot of reasons -it’s my best idea of the day (it’s #11 on my composite score list) -covering a span of over 1800 trades (real and backtested), it has an AVERAGE gain of 2.9%. -the 1 “losing” trade in all 1800+ was a signal from yesterday which I will boldly predict will become profitable too. -it has a per day held...

redwingcoach Updated 

I get excited every time MSFT shows up on my screener, because it is literally THE #1 stock in my trading universe (over 2000 stocks) in terms of its risk-adjusted per day returns (.23% based on over 1000 real and backtested trades). I mean it's #1 all time and that return is even MJs number. That has to be a sign... Seriously, though, when it produces over...

redwingcoach Updated 

TSCO may not be an obvious choice for the kind of short term trading I do, but that doesn’t stop it from being literally one of the 5 best stocks (historically) for my trading system. In backtests and live trades, it has a record of 892-1. The average gain on those trades was +2.6% in an average of 11 trading days for an average daily return of almost 6x that of...