rwoods187

rwoods187

The above chart is the SPX/Gold vs Gold and SPX. When the relationship is bullish stocks tend to be the #1 performer, when the indicator is bearish, gold appears to be the #1 performer. You could use this relationship on a 1M candle and elaborate it further by adding SPY/NASDAQ/BTC/IWM/VTI on the bullish side and USD/TLT/XLU/GLD on the bearish side. Following this...

rwoods187 Updated 

GOLD/COPPER vs TLT They have a history of correlation as per the chart, but the TLT is way above the ratio... Could be nothing, or it could be the bond bulls are off-side. The chart doesn't go back to the 90s, so I would take it with a grain of salt. This is something one should be cognitive of when they are making big macro picks.

rwoods187 Updated 

Lots of gloom and doom in the market these days because there is no vertical up and easy money is made. Use this opportunity to risk manage, buy quality on weakness as I did a month ago.

rwoods187 Updated 

I am not partial to these simple ratios, but they do correlate over time for global risk-on/off. It appears to be 30-year supercycles for the US market/credit macrocycles. Based on this chart, short gold and long DOW...

rwoods187

This chart is crude and only correlates most of the time, but it does stand to reason based on the macro outlook we are staring down the barrel of a sizeable market crash. Now the 3 lines were 2 years after the red circles. That means the bottom is likely at the end of 2023 to 2024. The best way to play this is cash, but deflationary bets might also work. Use...

rwoods187 Updated 

I know the inflation trade has been discussed and is possibly over, but CORN has been consolidating with higher lows and lower highs. If the trade is not over we could see a breakout to 780$. This is a hedge trade, corn has a lot of moving parts and the three biggest right now being demand for livestock, ethanol blending, and droughts. If traffic is picking up and...

rwoods187 Updated 

As seen in the past, the crack spread is about to roll over for the summer months until the fall shutdowns start again. How this plays out in the equities like $HFC is yet to be seen.

rwoods187

You can see the TTRE softening and likely to roll over in 2023 to be a buyers market. Charted below is the two major 5-year fixed rate expiring terms. (They are roughly ~2 years apart) Keep this in mind when buying or selling. To better time the market so much as you can?

rwoods187

I used the TTRE/CA05 to show the likely outcome of where we are vs where we are going. Likely a "bear" market for Canada in 2023. As much as there can be one. I would prefer to call it a buyers market more so than the usual sellers market Canucks are so used to. The chart clearly shows the two 5-year fixed-rate cycles roughly 2-3 years apart.

rwoods187

Here is an interesting comparison of the 3 charts. If the history of these charts has taught us anything, there is going to be a rise in rates on a real rate basis more so than actual rates. What is more interesting is how this real rate rise will influence gold prices. Now gold isn't bitcoin, they are the exact opposite things. One is front-loaded with energy and...

rwoods187

Few understand the diminishing returns of artificially created markets. This chart shows why the 60/40 or 70/30 should be replaced with something more contemporary. 50/20/20/10 portfolio Equities/gold/bitcoin&ETH/cash. In a world where more manipulation will create more volatility. People need the option to buy dips, sell rips, and realize the CBs have no way...

rwoods187 Updated 

Looking at the chart, lower highs and lower lows. With that said, hurricane season is around the corner, and the 330k bpd plant in Phili just went up in flames. They lost their Alky unit which produces a boat load of gasoline. I would gamble on this spread in the near term, but have a small position. The reason being the economy is slowing and less gasoline might...

rwoods187

This is the winner of the airline wars for stock picking. Expecting a big hit with earnings this quarter given the US domestic travel this year. Its adding routes back fast and expanding international travel.

rwoods187

It's hard to gauge what 1.9T can do to an index, but I think we roll over here after the stimulus. A fail run to a lower high and a slope down. Institutional will rotate as they have been to lower P/E like "value" energy, high beta, etc. Just a thesis. 1.9T can change a lot of factors.

rwoods187

Just a theory of how BTC will move.

rwoods187

HS building with a good tech macro backdrop. Semis as a whole is an overall hot market.

rwoods187

How many times does gold need to offer a buy the dip moment? Remember it is the contrary play to the money printer. Gold here works fundamentally. Either the US fed prints and gold wins, or we say deflation and gold wins. Gold is a currency, so risk manage accordingly.

rwoods187

A triangle consolidation present. I see a nice break out coming. I would adjust selling puts OTM to NTM or ITM. Also spice up the portfolio with some 31$-40$ Jan monthly call debit spreads.