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More upside is likely after a brief pullback. The rally of the past few trading weeks stalled recently. Nonetheless, it is broad-based across risky assets. That hints at genuine buying demand after investors have been shaken out of equities early this year. Tech stocks had a higher beta and outperformed during the rally. The black and red paths show the most...

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We are witnessing the most significant pullback since the rally started in mid-March. It is probably part of a correction within the bullish trend, which started in March. The main question is how much downside is likely short-term? It depends on sentiment. Put differently, it depends on how fast risk appetite and fear of missing out catch investors who moved to...

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The S&P 500 reached an interesting junction after a strong rally. More upside is likely, but the question is when and how. The rally has been unfolding for almost two trading weeks. It might have started stalling during the past few days. Tech stocks were strong and dragged the S&P 500 into a new high today. However, strength indicators diverged and hinted at...

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The next sustainable rally probably started. The S&P 500 broke the darker grey downside trend, which dominated price action in all of 2022. Equities will probably rally to an all-time high during the next few months. Technicals are constructive. A multi-week bottom building process is probably behind us. Nonetheless, investors remain bearish according to...

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An upside resolution remains most likely for the S&P 500. It is ambiguous if the low is in already. US indices did not confirm recent weakness in Asia and Europe. However, there is no clear motive wave from the late February low. The S&P 500 can go both ways if we don't see a sustained breakout above 4400. A breakout above that level confirms that the bottom is...

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A lot of folks expected a stock market crash after Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia this weekend. They were wrong again. Equities did not crash despite having enough narratives to justify a waterfall selloff. Bears have to question what it takes to bring the $SPX down?! Similar financial events sent shockwaves through markets during the Russian...

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Momentum continues diverging. Sellers could be done here because the vast majority expects significantly more downside. Volume confirms this picture as the chart shows. The SPY ETF’s volume diverged on a lower low yesterday. The same volume divergence was evidend at durable market bottoms and tops during the past few years. Hence, volume and momentum signals an...

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The S&P 500 on the cusp of breaking out from its bearish short-term trend. However, an upside resolution failed last Wednesday. Equities sold off sharply instead. Therefore, the risk of a retest of the Jan. 24 lows persists. Yet, technical evidence of a local bottom continues accumulating. We have witnessed a series of higher highs and higher lows since Jan. 24....

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An upside resolution remains most likely for the S&P 500. A fourth wave of intermediate degree probably unfolds in the S&P 500. The black and red scenarios blueprint the most likely paths. Red has slightly higher odds at the time of this write-up. Momentum diverged on all major scales. Moreover, there was disconfirming evidence in the most recent lows because...

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US equities are very expensive relative to long-term historical valuations. The 10-year CAPE ratio is a valuation gauge that has been used extensively by Professor R. Shiller from Yale University. The meter divides price by the average of ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings and smooths cyclical noise. It averaged roughly 17 over 160 years and is close to 40...

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The S&P 500 remains on target for 5000-5200 despite a bumpy road ahead. A retest of the late-January low is likely. The black and red scenarios blueprint the most likely paths. Black shows an ending diagonal, which led to the January correction. Subsequently, a zig-zag pattern completed a fourth wave. The black scenario implies that the late January low holds...

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Bears took a hard punch last week. However, bulls are not in control yet. Investors will probably have to manage a retest of the January lows. Excessive bearish sentiment and oversold conditions triggered a sharp rally over the past week. Bears have been squeezed as the buy-the-dip crowd smelled an opportunity. Subsequently, buyers retracted almost half of the...

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The correction is probably almost done. Nonetheless, a final selloff is likely. The S&P 500 probably corrected within an irregular flat. It ended the bearish trend for the moment and found support at the 4245 S/R. Subsequently, the index traded within a range, probably forming a fourth wave. Meanwhile, sentiment is extremely bearish according to the majority of...

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Sentiment indicators became increasingly pessimistic. Some of them are at capitulation levels already. Moreover, technical indicators signal an oversold stock market. Stocks typically reversed to the upside on similar conditions during the past decade. Nasdaq investor sentiment is a representative example. According to Mark Hulbert, newsletter advisors are as...

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The Nasdaq 100 reversed from the 16500 S/R and corrected sharply. Nonetheless, the rally is likely not over yet. A final swing towards 17000-19000 remains the most likely scenario. However, the question remains: When does the next sustainable rally start? The Nasdaq 100 broke below the bull trend that guided the index higher since September 2020. The correction...

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Speculative USD Long positions are at similarly elevated levels as in 2019. Moreover, the USD approaches a long-term trend confluence area, which held for more than 20 years....

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Pet lovers don't wanna see a sustained break below $0.44. A sustained break opens the trap door towards $0.15 short-term. Getting back above $0.44 keeps all options open to rally towards $1.

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How to trade a triangle - potential Santa rally in AAPL. On your mark: Wait until the triangle resolves and breaks out from resistance. Get set: Remain patient for a retest. Go: Entry trade on a sustained breakout after the retest and set a S/L at the retest low.