stockpreacherman

stockpreacherman

SPX chart with recessions from the last 140 yrs. or so highlighted.

stockpreacherman

Quick chart comparing TLT (INVERTED) with USO to show they trade exact opposite of each other. Oil go down, TLT go up. The world is collectively fighting inflation. Inflation literally does not come down unless oil prices come down.

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Quick chart to illustrate the correlation between oil prices and commodity prices.

stockpreacherman

Simple chart to look at the relation between hew home builds, a broad housing ETF and a mortgage lender. It demonstrates that they all have a strong correlation and that mortgage company performance is a leading indicator of housing market performance and that new build housing stocks are a leading indicator for the housing market in general.

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I was convinced there was a crash coming last year and was charting a lot of interesting things. I was totally wrong. Or, more kindly, we could say my timing was off (as per usual). But, revisiting my old chart, it looks like the same pattern has repeated and, once again, we're on the edge of a cliff. Last time it was all good and I was totally wrong. But I...

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in 2021, I noticed some patterns on both the BTC chart and the QQQ chart. Now these patterns are happening again on both charts. Last time, they didn't confirm. The market bounced back up. It bounced in mid-Oct 2021 - when the fourth stimulus check hit people's banks while a ton of extra unemployment benefits were given to people. I'd say it was a coincidence,...

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Chart to illustrate the oil prices as a leading indicator of month over month inflation rates. Inflation statistics mirror oil price action with a lag of about 1-2 months. "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his semiannual testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in March 2022 that, as a rule of thumb, every $10 per barrel increase in the...

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Put together a chart to illustrate what happens when government treasury yields converge at the same amount at a market peak. They consistently roll over and tank. When yields tank, bonds go up in value. Looks like a good spot to pick up some TLT.

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Chart to illustrate the inverse relationship between government yields and government treasury/bond funds. Yields go up, treasuries/bonds go down. Yields come down, treasuries and bonds go up. This is going to matter a lot very soon.

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Just a little post to highlight that it is important to note when EEM is out of synch with S&P and ask why. EEM often mirrors what the S&P does. As the U.S. stock market goes up and down it affects other countries. BUT, it's also worth noting that, sometimes, emerging markets are affected by global market events before the S&P is. Which makes sense. A lot of...

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Michael Burry tweeted about this a little while ago. I've been monitoring it for a month or so while the price has been ping-ponging around the $35,000 - $30,000 range. If price dips and maintains below $32K, the pattern is confirmed it's going to tumble or crash hard. Like the broad equity market, the amount of leverage traders hold is quite likely off the...

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Thought I'd take a look at the similarities/differences between price action now and in 2008. Obviously, it's the movement over two different windows of time (the '08 chart is over a much longer amount of time than the '22 chart). Found a couple similarities. Lol. Past doesn't indicate the future, obviously. But I thought it was interesting enough to share.

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Here is a quick chart that illustrates the effects of stimulus on the stock market. The influence that QE had on the market is painfully obvious. Will it be equally painful on the way down?

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Early days on this idea, obviously. It could blast up to higher highs and invalidate for sure (this market is anything but predictable). For the record, I'm neither a bull or bear, just an agnostic who likes to make money. Feel like this chart could be useful for bulls to consider for stops and bears to consider for shorts. I'll be tracking this.

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I check out the meme stock charts every once in a while - not to buy or short, but because they're all interesting phenomenon to me. So this isn't wishful thinking. I'm not a hold till I die guy. I don't even hold shares right now but that is very likely to change tonight. AMC has a completely text book bullish pennant. Tomorrow or the day after it looks like...

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Not confirmed, obviously, but the possibility is there. In tandem with the BTC chart (they've been correlating), things could get quite red all around.

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A lot of opinions floating around about how BTC will do in the next while. Opinions aren't as reliable as charts. Inverted cup and handle is incredibly close to being confirmed. The potential drop is huge. Based on the pronounced correlation between NASDAQ and BTC lately (BTC as a leading indicator), this could be a huge mess for equities.

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Very basic line chart to illustrate that BTC is a leading indicator of where the NASDAQ will go. They aren't always in lockstep, but the correlation is apparent.