Deeper look @ breakout setups.
Blindly selling Lows or buying Highs is a recipe for disaster in the long run.
But the right kind of buildup can legitimize a breakout (BO) entry. When a breakout failure (BOF) does NOT immediately make a strong move in the other direction, you've got to ask yourself -- has the power balance really shifted?
If not, it could just...
See chart for notes.
When a breakout failure DOESN'T immediately create a strong move, ask yourself who's really in control.
BOF's can create powerful moves, but early entrants can also be proved wrong really quickly. If they are, what does that do for your narrative?
This is the sort of setup that will make your week, month, or even your year.
You know when you just "know" a setup is going to work?
Well, I'd like to stop "just knowing" and actually define this. Because this is the sort of thing, if you traded exclusively, you'd have ridiculous W% and R stats, and crazy growth.
Here's why this setup is GRADE A+:
...
Pretty simple -- if price drops through the green box, I'm looking for shorts on the 15m/H1 depending on the time of day.
NG doesn't move as nicely as more contracts, but you'll still see strong moves at the right areas. The more it compresses BEFORE attempting a breakout short, the more I like the trade idea.
See chart for summary.
I don't think the market has topped here, but I do think there's an opportunity for short term shorts to nail a momentum move down AFTER a fail at the zone. I included the EMA's here because they provide a good visual tool...a pullback to the 25 EMA + zone + price action fail....that's essentially what I'm looking for. Ideally I'd like to...
Pretty simply....we've attacked this level really inefficiently over the last couple of weeks. Since that big gap down, price re-filled the area, retested the volatility expansion area, and failed to recover up past the preceding wedge.
Bias is down, looking for setups on the H1.
Not a whole lot to say that's not obvious on this chart. I just want to point out that getting in on a level like this, we expect a CHANGE IN STATE, from coiling range to explosion (up OR down). Part of the issue is to identify the right times to get in, when explosive moves are going to happen and THEN get in on the right entries. Two separate skills.
We watched this level break recently, and I mentioned I would have preferred to see a pullback before a big move....so here's a pullback. I'm usually hesitant to execute on the D1 because of the huge stops required....but might be looking for H1 entries in the next 12-24 hrs. The reason this isn't an A+ setup is that the level itself hasn't been completely tested...
The NQ is one of the trappiest contracts out there, so watch what happens at this level. It's worth zooming in to the 15m just to study the aftereffects in a few days.
The longer it builds up near the High WITHOUT breaking it, the more I'll be biased long. If we probe it overnight, I'll be back to cautiously looking.
Ideally I either want a naked attack in the...
Pretty simple, we're wedging at an important level. This is NOT a gimme setup because we're not really trending yet.
Let's watch for buildup at the level and see if we get naked attacks vs buildups....we'll have a better clue as to what's going to happen. Updates to follow!
This was the sequence I was waiting for all week.
Bears reclaim control with strength, the move slices through the entire zone, THEN price stalls....it's a beautiful thing.
Please refer back to the attached ideas/charts from earlier this week, you'll see my commentary. Specifically, it's the strength of the move through the level that put this pair back into...
Here's another example of the larger time frame providing plenty of chances on the lower time frame.
A healthy breakout is one with buildup against the level under attack. If we keep probing/failing....and STILL attacking the level from closer and closer, you know where the pressure is.
I'm sure you already use variable size to consistently risk the same % of...
See chart notes for why we're still in a Bearish shape and why I'm not looking for an entry anymore.
Yes, retests are nice areas to get in. No, I don't care for wide stops nor do I have the patience to sit through vague ideas finding clarity. We could easily come back down to the pink zone and then bounce back up.
D1 is hugely important for healthy analysis....
This is a great example for traders of all timeframes to study. I don't really have time for people basing trades on wide zones - that's fine for analysis, but for a TRADE, you've got to see the fight at a specific level. When you draw these correctly, you can get a really great picture of evolving sentiment and balance of power shifts.
Most traders treat...
We've already seen a shift in power to the Bulls on a shorter term level. Now we're testing the original point of expansion, which is often a natural level for price to retest before resuming trend.
However, in this case Bulls are coming at the level with a LOT of power. I wouldn't make any trading decisions until either the red lines are cleared and retested to...
