As of December 9, here are the main support and resistance levels as informed by smart money order flow (darkpool and block prints over $1 million). The white trendline is the one that has connected all the major peaks in 2022. The yellow trendline has acted as support from the October low, until it was broken on 12/6. A few things to keep in mind: $5.9B of...
My long-term Elliott Wave view of SPX. I have two counts: red and yellow. They are functionally both the same for the intermediate term. I'm looking for a continued rally to around 4100, followed by a precipitous drop to new lows. The drop is where we'll likely see the VIX spike (chart looks like it's about to break out) and final capitulation. There are countless...
Extremely bullish day following a favorable CPI print. SPX was up 5.5%. Is this just a short squeeze, or the bullish start to something bigger? I believe this is the final leg of the (B) wave rally, which will be the last time to unload longs and position short before the (C) wave down. Tomorrow (11/11) wave (iii) will likely complete in the 3967 - 4000 region....
Monday (11/4) will likely be a down day to complete the B of (B). Likely target is the 0.618 retracement of the 10/13 low to the 11/1 high at 3645-3650. Following the Monday low, SPX will likely rally until Wednesday (11/6) and form an intermediate high. SPX will then decline into a higher low on Monday (11/14). Targets for 11/6 and 11/14 are unclear. Finally,...
Two main paths forward: Yellow count: We are working on the (C) wave of an ABC correction down from the January high. We are currently in wave 4 of (C), which can peak from 3780 - 3840 before turning down. Final target for wave 5 of (C) is 3410 - 3325, with the potential to hit 3250, which is the 0.5 retracement of the COVID low to the January high (shown in...