We will cover the economy in the coming weeks. For now, we have Jackson Hole at the end of the summer. Stay Vigilant
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I’m going to cut it short this time: The market still isn’t doing what everybody seems to be hoping for: coming down. Everybody hates the rally, and I include myself there. I don’t see underlying weakness in the market or a clear catalyst why we should be heading straight back to lows. I’m still not married to my opinion on what’s going on.
I’m going to cut it short this time: The market still isn’t doing what everybody seems to be hoping for: coming down. Everybody hates the rally, and I include myself there. I don’t see underlying weakness in the market or a clear catalyst why we should be heading straight back to lows. I’m still not married to my opinion on what’s going on.
Global PMIs remain unchanged from last week: Eurozone and Canada are weakening US, UK, Australia, and Japan remain unchanged Taiwan has deteriorated markedly, China and South Korea are weaker as well Overall there’s a lot more red now than during the previous months
Global PMIs remain unchanged from last week: Eurozone and Canada are weakening US, UK, Australia, and Japan remain unchanged Taiwan has deteriorated markedly, China and South Korea are weaker as well Overall there’s a lot more red now than during the previous months
European Central Bank Schnabel (Neutral). Thu: ECB outlook on inflation has not changed, inflation concerns have not been alleviated and a number of indicators point to risk of expectations unanchoring. Growth is slowing, technical recession possible.
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A few words about the current market. Two weeks ago I wrote: The whole macro picture is still so weak that I find it really hard to write down: we're in a reflation trade now. I don't know how long it will last, but my guess is: until we get a sense how the September FOMC meeting might play out. Yes, we are still in that trade, everybody hates it (including me),...
Relevant market risks I have on my radar (it's obviously not a comprehensive list and mostly unchanged from last week): Europe: huge uncertainty regarding future of gas flows from Russia; an unexpected resolution of the conflict seems very unlikely, but it could escalate on multiple fronts (gas, energy, militarily) very quickly UK: don't have a clear idea about...
A few words about the current market. Two weeks ago I wrote: The whole macro picture is still so weak that I find it really hard to write down: we're in a reflation trade now. I don't know how long it will last, but my guess is: until we get a sense how the September FOMC meeting might play out. Yes, we are still in that trade, everybody hates it (including me),...
I recommend buying BTC in the green zone. Finally, the interest of major organizations in cryptocurrencies is providing a major push to the price of the flagship digital asset, as institutional adoption provides crypto with more legitimacy.
For the time being should not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary. It is appropriate for the Bank to maintain the current forward guidance for the policy rates. In this situation, it is appropriate that the Bank encourage wage increases through monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable...
Relevant market risks I have on my radar (it's obviously not a comprehensive list and mostly unchanged from last week): UK: the Northern Ireland protocol still remains unresolved
For the time being should not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary. It is appropriate for the Bank to maintain the current forward guidance for the policy rates. In this situation, it is appropriate that the Bank encourage wage increases through monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable...
A few words about how I see the current market: Powell's comments have led to what I believe is a short-term regime shift from QT to perceived-pseudo-QE (which isn't really QE but a lot less QT). The whole macro picture is still so weak that I find it really hard to write down: we're in a reflation trade now. I don't know how long it will last, but my guess is:...
XAU/USD GOLD This Week Possible Movement (2H) We have a good opportunity to sell it.