The USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a...
Matt takes another look at Bitcoin futures to update his analysis from last week, which seems to be playing nicely with his view that it is trying to carve out a swing low on the daily chart and muster up the strength for a rally.
An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
Looking at Bitcoin futures and how real-money accounts are positioned, a larger move higher could be brewing. But first, a nice setup could also be forming on the daily chart for a cheeky swing higher, if nothing else.
Metals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.
It is good to finally see the USD strength we were calling for finally come into play. It may have a little further to run, which could see further downside on the weekly chart for EUR/USD. But first, we look at a potential long on the daily and 4-hour chart, taking the weekly analysis into account.
On one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it.
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The Dow Jones trades in a gently upwards sloping channel. Having recovered from 38,400, the August low, the price rose to a fresh all-time high of 41,582 yesterday. The price hovers just below here today but is still above the near-term falling trendline support level.
Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50, will look to rise above 41,582 towards 42k and fresh...
Gold may have reached a record high on Tuesday, but it then handed back more than half of the day's gains to leave a long upper wick. The ATH met resistance at the weekly R2 pivot and the daily RSI (2) has formed a bearish divergence in the overbought zone.
A momentum shift can be seen at the ATH on the 1-hour chart. A bearish divergence has also formed on this...
Picking inflection points is not for everyone. But taking into account the two months of heavy USD selling, disapproval of a 'strong yen' from the BOJ and arguably oversold USD/JPY, perhaps some bullish mean reversion is due.
We take a look at the monthly, daily and 4-hour charts to show key levels.
We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.
Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment...
Traders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.
Yesterday I outlined why I was suspicious of the ASX 200 rally, and today I see it has now retraced. The ASX 200 futures market snapped an 11-day streak after forming a bearish pinbar perfectly at a 78.6% Fibonacci level, below the 8,000 handle. Volumes have been declining during the entire ‘rally’ which shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm, and potentially points...
Overbought indicators are of little use when markets are obsessed with rate cuts ahead of a key fed speech. Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson hole symposium and Friday, and expectations for a dovish show are high. And that's helped Wall Street indices extend gains and the allowed the ASX 200 to tag along for the ride. But if this turns out to be a classic...
USD bears are getting quite excited at the prospects of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. Perhaps a bit too excited. Market pricing has been quite dovish for some time now, so he will really have to crank up the dovish music on Friday to justify the latest surge of USD selling.
USD/JPY fell over -12.5% from the July high to August low, yet formed a...
I see a common connection when looking across Wall Street futures, ASX 200 and the Nikkei. They're all retracing higher after a large drop and grinding their way towards resistance levels. And that could appeal to bearish swing traders.
ASX 200 futures (SPI) are within their 8th day higher. And as they have only recouped around 2/3rds of the drop rom the fall...
US CPI data may not have been as soft as some would have liked, but it retains the view that the Fed will cut rates and achieve a soft landing.
The US dollar index reversed earlier CPI-induced losses to close the day flat on Wednesday and form a small bullish pinbar. Its low almost perfectly respected trend support from the July 2023 low, and shows that demand...
