Over the past three days we have seen two false breaks above 158, both resulting with a daily shooting star reversal. The upper wicks also serve as a double top above 158, and with US economic data slowly souring, the case for a top on USD/JPY is building.
Prices have found support around the May high, and another crack at 158 would not come as a surprise. Yet...
On Friday we saw USD/JPY failed to hold onto intraday gains above 158 following the BOJ meeting, and close the day back beneath the prior 'MOF intervention' level to form a shooting star candle.
Prices drifted higher on Monday on relatively low volume, putting us once again on guard for either a false break of 158 or Friday's high.
We're seeing a simple...
The China A50 rose over 20% from it January low to earn its 'technical bull market' status. Yet prices couldn't quite reach 13k before embarking on a -7% retracement over the next four weeks. Yet with it showing early signs of stability above support zones, perhaps a swing low is near - if not in place already.
The daily chart shows a bullish engulfing candle on...
AUD posted a strong rally of 5% from the April low, before 67c capped as resistance. A choppy rage has since formed between 66c-67c, although it could also be a bull flag in the making. Whilst we wait for it to decide which of the two it is, we're looking at a cheeky swing trade long idea heading into the weekend.
The 1-hour chart shows a strong rally from US...
WTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines.
The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and...
Gold managed to rose for a second day after Friday's strong NFP selloff, but bulls clearly lack conviction looking at the small bullish candles on the daily chart. This has allowed a retracement channel to form on the 1-hour chart, which suggests momentum could eventually turn lower.
With US CPI potentially coming in hot and the Fed pushing back on cuts, it could...
The whipsaws for the US dollar around US CPI and the FOMC meeting made its mark on USD/JPY, which closed the day with a large hanging man candle beneath the May high. Markets are still deciding whether to pay closer attention to softer inflation data or the Fed's relatively hawkish meeting, and that likely means confusing price action on USD pairs.
The 1-hour...
Friday's nonfarm payroll report took many by surprise to send the USD dollar sharply higher against all of its major peers. And that clearly took it toll on the Aussie, which suffered its worst day in five weeks. A bearish outside week formed, all thanks to an elongated bearish engulfing candle on Friday.
AUD/USD managed a minor rebound from its 100 and 200-day...
The ECB are expected to cut their benchmark rate for the first time in 8 years in a few hours. Yet as it has been so well telegraphed and they seem unlikely to provide promise of further cuts just yet, we suspect upside potential for euro pairs once the dust has settled. And with Wall Street at new highs and appetite for risk on the rise, EUR/JPY looks good for...
Price action may be choppy on the daily timeframe, but it remains in an uptrend none the less. Price action since the April high appears to be corrective, and support was found around a prior VAH (value area high) and 1.36 handle.
The 1-hour chart shows strong bullish momentum from 1.36, and prices are now consolidating within a potential bull flag. The pattern...
Our bias is for the US dollar index to rise to 105 over the near-term. The daily chart respected trend support from the December low, and the 4-hour chart shows a small ascending triangle which implies a break above resistance.
Out of the FX majors, USD/CHF looks ready to break above resistance and lead the dollar broadly higher. Bears could also consider a short...
Gold formed a decent rally after consolidating above the 2023 high. We finally saw a retracement following its failure to close above $2400, but momentum is now trying to turn higher once more.
We're not yet sure whether any potential bounce is simply the 'b' wave on a ABC correction (if so, it implies another leg lower after a bounce) or if the correction has...
The SPI 200 shows an established uptrend on the 1-hour chart, with a recent bullish engulfing candle forming a higher low around the 20-bar EMA and closing above a retracement line.
The RSI remains above 50 to show positive momentum, and there are no obvious signs of a topping pattern forming on the chart.
A break above 7907 assumes bullish continuation and...
We all know of the strong rally that catapulted to a fresh record high in March. Yet price action since appears to be corrective. Whilst we do not yet know if this is simply the first leg lower of a complex correction, or it is set to break to new highs - only time will tell. However, it appears set for a leg higher over the near term.
Volume retreated with...
Prices have been coiling on the daily chart to form a potential bullish pennant / symmetrical triangle, which hints at further gains. RSI (14) remains over 50 on the daily chart, and volumes were lower during the consolidation to show lack of conviction from bears, sellers stepping in at the cycle highs.
The 1-hour chart shows prices retracing lower after RSI (2)...
At the beginning of April, Japan's ex-FX diplomat Watanabe said that the BOJ were unlikely to intervene with USD/JPY below 155. Well now the pair trade less than 80 pips beneath this key level (and less than a day's trade by recent standards), 155 is certainly the level to watch today.
The strength of the bullish 1-hour trend makes it seem that USD/JPY has little...
Having fallen for six consecutive days, bearish momentum on EUR/USD is beginning to fade. Tuesday's low also held above the 1.06 level and 71.6% Fibonacci level whilst RSI (14) and (2) are in oversold levels on the daily chart.
The 4-hour chart shows bullish divergences on the RSIs, so the bias is to seek dips towards 1.06 for a long towards 1.0650 at a minimum....
Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone.
A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near.
A...
