The DAX is set to open lower, but there are two potential scenarios to monitor; a bullish breakout from a bull flag – or the swing high has already been seen around trend resistance.
The DAX has rallied from the September low in three waves, which could either be part of a new bullish trend or part of a 3-wave retracement. If we look at price action alone, the...
Australian CPI beat expectations by a long mile yesterday, as did inflation for New Zealand in their most recent report. But the key difference between Australia and New Zealand for currency traders to be aware of is their central banks. The RBNZ have been far more aggressive than the RBA - with the latter dropping to 25bp rate increases and their rate remaining...
The Nasdaq was the weakest of the three major indices on Wall Street ahead of Apple’s earnings report scheduled later today.
Despite a strong start, Wall Street indices snapped a 3-day winning streak on Wednesday and handed back early gains just before lunch. Weak earnings guidance from large tech companies weighed on sentiment and served as a harsh reminder that...
Tesla shares were lower after their mixed earnings report, which is likely a combination of traders booking profits from the small pre-earnings bounce in a classic case of ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’. But who knows, perhaps investors are tiring of Elon Musk’s showmanship remarks, which today included expectations of a “record breaking Q4” and the potential for...
Tesla shares were driven lower during after-hour trade following their Q3 earnings report, despite Elon Musk later touting a “record breaking Q4”. But let’s keep is simple and look at a potential multi-month reversal pattern on the monthly chart, and Tesla’s potential to break lower this week.
Sometimes you really need to stand back to admire the view, and the...
Following a 3-day pullback from 93.64, WTI produced a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart which closed back above the 20-day EMA. Given the strength of the rally from the 76.30 low, we suspect a corrective low has been found.
The 4-hour chart shows that there was a lot of trading activity around 87.60 since the September low (which marks the volume POC /...
There are two tell tale signs that an important event is looming; realised volatility has died a quiet death whilst implied volatility has sprung alive. For all FX majors, 1-day implied volatility is currently higher than 1-week implied volatility, which means options traders estimate volatility over the next 24-hours to be greater than the next five days.
Today...
WTI has been one of the few markets to stand up to recent dollar strength, with prices rising over 16% last week alone.
A strong bullish trend has developed on the 1-hour WTI chart. The 20 and 50-bar EMA’s have provided dynamic support throughout the trend and may provide bullish opportunities with a pullback towards them. The 20-bar EMA is near the daily pivot...
USD/JPY finally closed above 145 for the first time in 24 years. Given we saw the MOF (Ministry of Finance) intervene around 145.9 then the potential for the BOJ or MOF to jawbone (if not intervene) may be high. However, traders remain aware that it will take a coordinated intervention to turn this trend around, which is why prices simply drifted back to the highs...
The US dollar was the strongest major currency on Wednesday, supported by rising US yields and softer import/export data (which points to a softer global economy). And whilst the prices paid component of the ISM services PMI softened to a 20-month low of 68.8, it remains historically high relative to its long-term average of 59.8 - which suggests the aggressive...
The Nikkei 225 has fallen sharpy towards (yet held above) the September low. A small bullish hammer formed on Thursday to show a loss of bearish momentum, alongside a false break of trend support. A bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday and closed above the 100 and 200-day EMA's. Its low also respected a 50% retracement level and closed back above trend...
The SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, which would send their rate above zero for the first time since 2011.
The central bank entered ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) between 2011 – 2015 before switching to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly...
The RBA are expected to hike interest rates by 50bp at 14:30 today and take the cash rate to 2.85%. From here we suspect they’ll revert to 25bp hikes with the potential to pause in December or January.
The Aussie remains within an established downtrend and within a wider bearish channel on the 4-hour chart. It appears it is within the third wave of a 3-wave...
The British pound suffered a flash crash yesterday as Asian traders reacted to the UK’s mini budget, which many suspect will exacerbate inflation and increase debt. Some are already calling for a vote of no confidence for PM Truss.
GBP/USD hit a record low before rebounding over 5% and GBP/JPY saw levels of volatility not seen since Brexit. And these levels of...
Many traders across Asia will be looking at their spot gold charts today after its solid close beneath the 2021 low. Such moves can spark another round of selling as investors flea for the exit.
But before gold speculators decide to go 'all in' at these lows on spot gold prices, I suggest you also look at the gold futures chart if trading over the near-term...
As markets are still reeling from the US inflation report, a hotter than expected CPI set for the UK could simply add to the panic. At least to a degree. The difference here though is that inflation is expected to rise (as opposed to soften like in the US) but in the current climate, a hotter than hot report could add further pressure to equity markets.
Core...
Recent price action on gold appears to be corrective, given the overlapping natures of the swings and choppy trading conditions as it grinds higher. The retracement has stalled around the 38.2% Fibonacci level and weekly R1 pivot point, and a two-bar bearish reversal formed at the resistance zone to suggest the market is trying to top out. That said, corrections...
The ECB (European Central Bank) raised rates in July for the first time in a decade. Today they will raise rates again, and the question is whether it will be by 50 or 75bp. With the Europe likely headed for double digit inflation then the case for a hawkish 75bp hike there. And like they did in the July meeting, ECB policy makers are also likely to express...
