Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement:
• The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35%
• Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9%
• Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures
• CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand
• Medium-term inflation expectations...
We’ve been waiting for AUD/NZD to retrace from its cycle high to reconsider longs, and it has now once again piqued our interest. Prices found support at the 200-day EMA yesterday, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement holding today’s low nearby.
Whilst RSI (2) is not quite overbought, it is not far from it which suggests we could be approaching a cycle low. It is...
AUD/JPY finally broke above trend resistance, the 200-day EMA and pivotal zone of 90.9 – 91.5. The 20-day EMA also provided support for two bullish hammers, which could mark the end of a shallow retracement from its breakout move higher. The bias remains bearish above this week’s lows and for a move towards the high around 93.
Yield differentials between the US and China 2-year treasury note continue to suggest USD/CNH could be oversold, at least over the near-term. The daily close chart (above in black) also better shows the potential for a higher low, as part of a countertrend move.
The daily candlestick chart shows a recent pullback has failed to retest the 6.6976 low, and yesterday...
We have been patiently waiting for momentum to turn higher, which it finally did yesterday thanks to the dovish 50bp BOE hike. It closed above its recent consolidation, having formed several lower spikes which held above historic highs. From here we now fancy a retest of its YTD high and move towards 7900, near its record high.
Shorting USD/JPY is not a new idea and, as the pair has erased around half of its 21-month rally whilst holding above key support levels, we see the potential for a bounce over the coming weeks.
Like many indices, the DAX has enjoyed a strong start to the year after a dismal ‘Santa’s rally’. But after a 9% rally this month and early signs of a potential top, perhaps it is time for the DAX to pull back from its highs.
If we look at the daily chart, the market formed a small top and daily close below 15,000. Whilst prices are back above the milestone...
A potential bearish continuation pattern is forming on the 4-hour chart around last week’s VPOC (volume point of control). RSI (14) produced a bearish divergence ahead of the selloff and remains below 50 to show negative momentum overall. Prices remain beneath the weekly and pivot point and monthly R1, so now seeking evidence of a swing high beneath those levels...
Volatility was high during the Asian and US session yesterday, which saw a reversal of fortunes for the Japanese yen and the US dollar track Wall Street lower by the close on concerns the US is already in a recession.
The yen originally weakened and sent USD/JPY over 250 pips higher as the BOJ did absolutely nothing, catching pre-emptive hawkish bets off guard....
Overnight implied volatility has risen sharply higher for yen pairs ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting. In fact, they now sit at their highest level since Brexit, which saw some yen pairs produce double-digit percentages moves (to the favour of the yen) following the infamous vote.
Why are traders on edge ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting?
The BOJ...
One week down, plenty more to go. We'll take a quick look at key themes and events that are driving market, what to look out for next week and include charts and potential setups for the watchlist.
I do not expect this to be a popular view, given the excitement of the rally on metals in general in recent weeks. But no trend lasts forever and we’ve not really seen much of a pullback on silver prices lately. Besides, silver has risen nearly 40% since the September low and fast approaching the upper trendline from a wide (slightly bearish) channel. The tendline...
WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle....
We see a technical case for EUR/GBP to top out over the near-term, which could be helped if Germany deliver a soft inflation report today. The baulk of today’s economic data is from Germany, with employment data at 08:55 GMT then inflation at 13:00. UK manufacturing PMI is scheduled for 09:30, then manufacturing PMI data is then released for Canada and the US at...
USD/JPY fell around -12% from its October high to December low, but is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
USD/JPY managed to hold above the 133.62 low and formed a higher low with a Doji, which is part of a 3-bar bullish reversal pattern (Morning Star Reversal). The 200-day EMA is also providing support. Prices have fully recovered the losses...
An interesting setup may have formed on the FTSE 100 daily chart. It has seen a strong rally from its October low and since produced a relatively shallow pullback from the 7600 resistance zone. The RSI (2) was oversold on Thursday and curled higher on Friday, which closed the day with a Spinning Top Doji candle to suggest a swing ow has formed. Furthermore, the...
The US dollar is trying to form a base following its false break of the August low. Whilst it saw a daily close beneath the key level on Friday 2nd December, a bullish engulfing candle formed the following day. Furthermore, a higher low formed on Friday with a Spinning top Doji and held above the August low, and momentum is pointing higher today. So if this week’s...
