Currently lower for a sixth day, bitcoin futures have just tested the 200-day average for the first time this year. This clearly marks a pivotal moment for bulls and bears over the near term, but we also have to factor in the higher timeframes.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
With key levels holding and bullish divergences forming, USD/JPY looks like it may want to retrace higher over the near term before its bearish trend resumes and head for the 146 - 47 area.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Even as recently as two weeks ago, the thought of fed cuts were in the distant past. Yet a slew of weak data from the US since Friday including two consumer sentiment reports and a surprise PMI miss has seen markets reconsider a 25bp Fed cut in June. Today I cover bond yields, the US dollar index and futures exposure to update my dollar outlook.
Matt Simpson,...
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have once again reached record high, leaving the Dow Jones for dust in its choppy consolidation. But I think we're now facing a relative shift in their performance, which could see the Dow lead the way and close its gap with its Wall Street Peers.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The RBNZ just delivered their third 50bp cut in a row, and they have left the door open for further easing this year. And given I expect the RBNZ's cash rate to remain beneath the RBA's for the remainder of the year, it could pave the way for a bullish breakout on AUD/NZD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The RBA have just cut their cash rate for the first time since late 2020. Using their monetary policy statement and updated forecast, I provide my instant high-level view of what this could mean fir future policy - with an update to my AUD/USD outlook thrown in for good measure.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The ASX 200 reached a record high in today's session, but it's not a convincing record high in my books. If anything, it could signal yet another false break. Using the ASX cash and futures market alongside Wall Street indices, I delve into why we need to be on guard for another bull trap before the real move potentially begins.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at...
It seems everyone bullish the USD, waiting for its inevitable breakout above 110. But a subtle shift of bullish exposure to USD futures suggests the game is changing, and that a breakout may not be assured. Using market positioning from CME futures markets, dollar index and commodity FX charts, I take a closer look.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and...
Given the decent ADP report just delivered ahead of Friday's NFP figures, I'm curious to see whether the direction of ADP can be an indicator of what to expect on the headline Nonfarm growth figure. Armed with another spreadsheet, I take a look.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
We're sandwiched between an incoming NFP report and the turbulence from Trump's tariffs. That could provide a double dose of 'fickle' price action, which we tend to see leading up to big events such as nonfarm payrolls or Fed meetings. With that in mind, I update my bearish bias on ASX 200 futures, using the intraday timeframe and a glance at Wall Street...
Trump's trade negotiations provided USD/CAD with its most volatile daily range since the height of the Pandemic. Yet the surprise announcement that Trump is pausing Canada's tariffs for 30 days saw prices reverse sharply lower, to close the day with an elongated bearish hammer.
Does that pave the way for an immediate reversal lower? Not necessarily. Using price...
The ASX 200 cash market is tantalisingly close to retesting its record high set in December. Traders are betting on an RBA cut in February (and 100bp of cuts this year) which is helping to support the market. Yet I doubt the ASX will simply break to a new high without a fresh catalyst. Comparing the ASX 200 cash and futures market and their key levels, I explain...
If the release of DeepSeek's AI models really is as disruptive as some suspect, Nvidia bulls could be seriously questioning if they want to hold onto the stock for the long haul. And that means some bulls could be looking to offload into a bounce while bears seek to fade into them. I highlight some key levels for bears to keep an eye on.
Matt Simpson, Market...
AUD/USD escaped a short-covering rally on Wednesday, as softer-than-expected Q4 inflation figures could justify the 25bp RBA cut that money markets were already pricing in. I take a quick look at the key inflation measures and AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
We've just seen the BOJ deliver a hawkish hike, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and cited rising wage pressures. This leaves the door open for further hikes this year. Meanwhile, Trump is now trying to strongarm the Fed and global central banks to lower interest rates immediately. Together, this is the ideal divergent theme currency traders crave....
The S&P 500 closed less than 4 points from its record high on Wednesday. On one hand, the reversal candle with bearish volumes suggest a pullback, on the other we've seen bears humbled under similar scenarios over the past 18 months. Today I explain why I think a bullish breakout is on the cards, while highlighting my bearish concerns for market positioning....
While my bias for bitcoin futures to reach 125k remain in play, I'm a tad suspicious of its attempt to take out the previous record high with any conviction this week. I take a closer look at trading volumes and futures market positioning to explain why.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and TradingView
The potential of a divergent theme between the ECB and BOJ alongside several price action clues suggest we could be looking at a decent bearish move for EUR/JPY this year.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
![AP1!: ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record high](https://s3.tradingview.com/m/mJ6fxXbq_mid.png "ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record high")
