The NAS100 has rallied 12.5% since the 13 March low, and while starting to look overbought, momentum is clearly strong. The closing break of the bull flag and 12,893 horizontal resistance offers a technical target of 13,800. Price is bull trending and hugging the upper Bollinger Band, with pullbacks contained to the 5-day EMA. Fundamentally, if capital continues...
Time – 4 April @ 14:30 AEDT
In the March RBA meeting minutes, the RBA noted policy was now in restrictive territory and they would “reconsider” the case for a pause in the April meeting. Is there enough new information to compel this pause?
Market expectations - hike or a pause?
The market prices just 4bp of hikes for this meeting, equating to a 16% chance of...
Westy and Blake are back! Today, they're talking rates (inc the RBA!), banks, stocks (with a trade idea for the Nasdaq), forex (EUR, JPY and GBP) and gold! Tune in for another episode of The Trade Off.
Markets are still on alert for developments on the banking front, as nerves persist, while last week's central bank bonanza delivered some surprises, and opened divergences traders can take advantag of in the FX space.
Westy and Blake are back - this time from Westy's hotel room in Hong Kong! Yet another crazy week in markets, and they're talking banks, FOMC (and other central banks), gold, Nasdaq and lots of forex pairs
There has been an almost nirvana backdrop for gold appreciation through March, and the improved investment case has offered tailwinds which have seen spot gold trade into $2009.
Gold longs would be disappointed the $2000 failed to hold though and subsequently, we see indecision on the daily chart, denoted by the pronounced ‘doji’ candle – this short-term...
It could get pretty crazy in the markets this week, and it may start on the futures open at 9am AEDT – headlines have been rolling in today and everyone is on edge for answers – it's complex, but I’ll try and explain what we’re looking out for.
Let us first focus on the US banks – they are a central focus and really the big issue at hand.
EU banks are quite...
So much to get through this week on another big episode of The Trade Off. West and Blake have got you covered, macro, charts and trade ideas! Today they're talking Banks & the FOMC Meeting, Bitcoin, Gold, EURUSD, Crude, AUDJPY and more!
Times to be aware of:
23 March at 5 am AEDT (6 pm GMT) – Chair Powell’s press conference at 05:30 AEDT
While there is much debate around this call, I still think we’re staring at the Fed delivering a 25bp hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Where the risks to the USD are skewed to the long side.
It is a call that is certainly being hotly debated and while...
We've seen the fallout from higher for longer and a deeply inverted yield curve - with the failing of SVB Financial and Signature Bank in the US.
The market has punished financials feeling we could see far more conservatives lending and tighter regulations - interest rate hikes have come out of the markets, resulting in some of the biggest moves in US Treasury...
We saw AUDUSD sideways consolidate between 0.6775 and 0.6700 on the H1 timeframe before breaking support at 0.6700 and plummeting to 0.6570.
We then saw a pullback and shooting star rejection on the previous support, now resistance, as well as the golden fib, which formed a confluence of matrix for a reversal to the downside.
Could we see a continuation leg down...
We start the week on a positive note but with such event risk in front of us volatility remains something that traders need to adjust too and respect.
After spending most of the weekend debating who was to blame for SVB Financials demise and who was next in the firing line, we’ve seen the Fed uniting with the US Treasury and the FDIC to bring out the big guns -...
We saw GBPAUD form a rounded bottom on the H4 timeframe, which is usually a bullish reversal sign after a sustained drop.
We then saw a series of higher highs then a break of the rounded bottom neckline at 1.793 followed by a move higher.
Could we see a pullback to 1.802 then a continuation to the target area at 1.825?
Once for the radar
A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps?
-SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge...
Westy and Blake are back with another big update on The Trade Off! They're talking Rates, NFP Strategy, Yield Curves, the USD, EURUSD, EURAUD, China 50, SpotCrude, USDCAD and more - see you there!
Equities enjoyed a rally last week, as yields paused their ascent, and the dollar rolled over; a busy week awaits traders this week, with Fed Chair Powell heading to Capitol Hill, and the nonfarm payrolls report eyed.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Lit
