Sept 4
Overview:
Today marks a mini anniversary—exactly one month since the 15%
BTCUSD BTC crash on August 5th, which concluded a 7-day bearish correction. This correction was the third wave in a 28-day cycle. Why does this matter? BTC tends to follow relatively short cycles and typically doesn’t take longer than a month to make a decisive move in either direction. If there’s momentum left, it’s time to pump. If not, we may see a dump.
The Fed reported 7.7 million job openings in July, the lowest level since 2021. This was below the estimated 8.1 million and June’s 7.9 million. Job openings have been declining since March 2022, the month when the Fed first raised rates after cutting them to 0% in response to COVID-19. However, this figure is still higher than the peak of 7.6 million in November 2018. The Fed's goal isn’t to reach the same numbers as in 2018, but if we apply the growth in the U.S. economy since then, 7.6 million jobs in 2018 would be equivalent to 8.46 million in early 2024. Hence, discussions of an interest rate cut on September 18th are gaining momentum.
On Wednesday, the
SP500 and 
QQQ both opened and closed lower than the previous day, though they posted green candles. Despite this, their relation to the previous day is bearish. So far, this September is shaping up to be like others—Labor Day weekend is over, professionals are back at their desks, and business cycles are picking up (the last three trading days have shown higher volume since August 9th).
As we mentioned yesterday, BTC’s new trading range is between 55.8k and 58.4k. It touched the lower bound of 55.8k at 9 PM NYC time and then climbed to 58.5k 15 hours later but has been sliding down since.
BTC ETF flows have been negative for the last 7 days, despite occasional daily green candles. At Evgen Capital, we believe ETFs represent a less crypto-enthusiastic crowd, akin to the shoe shiner who once gave stock tips to John Rockefeller—prompting him to sell. As with the Fear and Greed Index that we quote regularly, one should move in the opposite direction of ETF flows. If they are negative for an extended period, it’s time to start buying. If they’re posting all-time highs, it’s time to sell.
W: Up until today, it was a green weekly candle, but it has now turned into a red doji. Can it hold the 55.9k level? We don’t see many reasons for a quick dump, so BTC might remain in this range for another week. Big volatility is expected next week ahead of the September 18th rate cuts. Neutral.
D: RSI is at 41. The last time it was here was August 15th, which preceded a 15% pump over 10 days, trapping the bulls. Bullish to neutral.
4h: Neutral.
1h: At the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands with a low RSI. Neutral to bullish.
Alts relative to BTC: No divergences or major breakouts.
Bull case: There is still time before the historically bearish October to push BTC up to 60k. ETFs are showing signs of capitulation, with 7 consecutive days of sell-offs.
Bear case: There’s a lack of enthusiasm toward crypto, and negative news, like the SEC sending subpoenas to
UNIUSD investors, continues to emerge.
Fear and Greed Index: 34. No change.
Prediction: For the rest of the week, BTC will likely retest the 55.9k level. If strong volume and buying power come in, bulls might be able to push through.
Opportunities: Weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins.
SOLUSD, 
ARUSD, and 
AVAXUSD show bullish MACD divergence. Even though BTC has been sliding lower, these altcoins reached their lows a few days ago, when we reported BTC-to-alts divergence. This is the time to decide which side to take and to set stop-limit orders.
Today marks a mini anniversary—exactly one month since the 15%
BTCUSD BTC crash on August 5th, which concluded a 7-day bearish correction. This correction was the third wave in a 28-day cycle. Why does this matter? BTC tends to follow relatively short cycles and typically doesn’t take longer than a month to make a decisive move in either direction. If there’s momentum left, it’s time to pump. If not, we may see a dump.The Fed reported 7.7 million job openings in July, the lowest level since 2021. This was below the estimated 8.1 million and June’s 7.9 million. Job openings have been declining since March 2022, the month when the Fed first raised rates after cutting them to 0% in response to COVID-19. However, this figure is still higher than the peak of 7.6 million in November 2018. The Fed's goal isn’t to reach the same numbers as in 2018, but if we apply the growth in the U.S. economy since then, 7.6 million jobs in 2018 would be equivalent to 8.46 million in early 2024. Hence, discussions of an interest rate cut on September 18th are gaining momentum.
On Wednesday, the
SP500 and QQQ both opened and closed lower than the previous day, though they posted green candles. Despite this, their relation to the previous day is bearish. So far, this September is shaping up to be like others—Labor Day weekend is over, professionals are back at their desks, and business cycles are picking up (the last three trading days have shown higher volume since August 9th).As we mentioned yesterday, BTC’s new trading range is between 55.8k and 58.4k. It touched the lower bound of 55.8k at 9 PM NYC time and then climbed to 58.5k 15 hours later but has been sliding down since.
BTC ETF flows have been negative for the last 7 days, despite occasional daily green candles. At Evgen Capital, we believe ETFs represent a less crypto-enthusiastic crowd, akin to the shoe shiner who once gave stock tips to John Rockefeller—prompting him to sell. As with the Fear and Greed Index that we quote regularly, one should move in the opposite direction of ETF flows. If they are negative for an extended period, it’s time to start buying. If they’re posting all-time highs, it’s time to sell.
W: Up until today, it was a green weekly candle, but it has now turned into a red doji. Can it hold the 55.9k level? We don’t see many reasons for a quick dump, so BTC might remain in this range for another week. Big volatility is expected next week ahead of the September 18th rate cuts. Neutral.
D: RSI is at 41. The last time it was here was August 15th, which preceded a 15% pump over 10 days, trapping the bulls. Bullish to neutral.
4h: Neutral.
1h: At the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands with a low RSI. Neutral to bullish.
Alts relative to BTC: No divergences or major breakouts.
Bull case: There is still time before the historically bearish October to push BTC up to 60k. ETFs are showing signs of capitulation, with 7 consecutive days of sell-offs.
Bear case: There’s a lack of enthusiasm toward crypto, and negative news, like the SEC sending subpoenas to
UNIUSD investors, continues to emerge.Fear and Greed Index: 34. No change.
Prediction: For the rest of the week, BTC will likely retest the 55.9k level. If strong volume and buying power come in, bulls might be able to push through.
Opportunities: Weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins.
SOLUSD, ARUSD, and AVAXUSD show bullish MACD divergence. Even though BTC has been sliding lower, these altcoins reached their lows a few days ago, when we reported BTC-to-alts divergence. This is the time to decide which side to take and to set stop-limit orders.
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