🧠 CHF/JPY Daily Chart
🗓️ June 18, 2025
Theme: "Approaching the Danger Zone – Will It Break or Bounce?"
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (near resistance)
Setup: Rising wedge into multi-year resistance zone
🔍 Market Structure Analysis:
The CHF/JPY has been riding a clean bullish wave since early 2025, but the pair now faces its most critical battle zone — the 179.50–180.00 multi-year resistance block, which previously marked a sharp reversal point.
The recent price action shows a rising wedge structure, which is often a bearish reversal pattern, especially when appearing near significant resistance.
🧬 Confluences in Play:
✅ Rising Wedge: Tightening structure indicates exhaustion of bullish momentum.
✅ Major Supply Zone: Price is approaching a high-likelihood reaction zone (180.00), where sellers aggressively took over in the past.
✅ Bearish Divergence Watch: (Not shown but likely developing on RSI or MACD)
✅ EMA Clustering: 15 & 60 EMAs rising, suggesting short-term momentum, but also acting as dynamic support if price breaks lower.
🔁 Scenario-Based Trade Plan:
🟥 Bearish Rejection Setup:
Entry: If price prints a strong bearish engulfing or pin bar near 179.50–180.00
SL: Above 180.20 (liquidity sweep buffer)
TP1: 174.50 (wedge base)
TP2: 172.00 (previous structure support)
TP3: 165.00 (macro demand zone)
R:R Potential: 3–5+
🟩 Breakout Continuation (Contingency Plan):
Buy Stop above 180.50 on strong close + retest
Targeting 184.00+ (measured move from wedge height)
🎯 Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 179.50–180.00
Trendline Support: 174.00
High-Volume Node: 172.00
Major Demand: 165.00–166.00 (long-term)
⚠️ Risks & Considerations:
JPY volatility due to BoJ surprises
CHF is sensitive to risk sentiment → geopolitical/macro shifts can rapidly flip bias
Wedge can fakeout before true move — confirm with volume + daily close
🧵 Summary Thought:
"Price is climbing a narrowing staircase into a wall. Will it punch through or trip on fatigue? Either way — the move from here is likely to be decisive. This is not the time to blink."
Share your Idea please...
#CHFJPY #MJTrading #Chart #Analysis #CHF #JPY
🗓️ June 18, 2025
Theme: "Approaching the Danger Zone – Will It Break or Bounce?"
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (near resistance)
Setup: Rising wedge into multi-year resistance zone
🔍 Market Structure Analysis:
The CHF/JPY has been riding a clean bullish wave since early 2025, but the pair now faces its most critical battle zone — the 179.50–180.00 multi-year resistance block, which previously marked a sharp reversal point.
The recent price action shows a rising wedge structure, which is often a bearish reversal pattern, especially when appearing near significant resistance.
🧬 Confluences in Play:
✅ Rising Wedge: Tightening structure indicates exhaustion of bullish momentum.
✅ Major Supply Zone: Price is approaching a high-likelihood reaction zone (180.00), where sellers aggressively took over in the past.
✅ Bearish Divergence Watch: (Not shown but likely developing on RSI or MACD)
✅ EMA Clustering: 15 & 60 EMAs rising, suggesting short-term momentum, but also acting as dynamic support if price breaks lower.
🔁 Scenario-Based Trade Plan:
🟥 Bearish Rejection Setup:
Entry: If price prints a strong bearish engulfing or pin bar near 179.50–180.00
SL: Above 180.20 (liquidity sweep buffer)
TP1: 174.50 (wedge base)
TP2: 172.00 (previous structure support)
TP3: 165.00 (macro demand zone)
R:R Potential: 3–5+
🟩 Breakout Continuation (Contingency Plan):
Buy Stop above 180.50 on strong close + retest
Targeting 184.00+ (measured move from wedge height)
🎯 Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 179.50–180.00
Trendline Support: 174.00
High-Volume Node: 172.00
Major Demand: 165.00–166.00 (long-term)
⚠️ Risks & Considerations:
JPY volatility due to BoJ surprises
CHF is sensitive to risk sentiment → geopolitical/macro shifts can rapidly flip bias
Wedge can fakeout before true move — confirm with volume + daily close
🧵 Summary Thought:
"Price is climbing a narrowing staircase into a wall. Will it punch through or trip on fatigue? Either way — the move from here is likely to be decisive. This is not the time to blink."
Share your Idea please...
#CHFJPY #MJTrading #Chart #Analysis #CHF #JPY
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.