Bullish and Bearish Scenario - Daily Chart
Market Trend
The current market trend analysis shows mixed signals across different indicators. While we are challenging the 20-day MA on the daily timeframe, the distance from the 50-day and 100-day EMA confirms the persistence of a downtrend. The Average RSI touching the 50 level, yet staying below it, suggests that the RSI is attempting a reversal but has not yet shifted the overall trend. Conversely, the MACD presents an indication of an uptrend, with the 9-day EMA remaining below the 12-day and 26-day EMAs. However, a contracting histogram and decreasing bar sizes point to weakening momentum and a potential trend reversal back to a downtrend. This confluence of factors highlights the market's current volatility and the potential for a shift in trend direction.
Symmetrical Triangle, FIBs, Dead Cat Bounce and Liquidity.
The main support and resistance levels are found within the symmetrical triangle formed after a previous downtrend. This symmetrical triangle indicates a 91% chance of continued downward movement after exiting the triangle, and a 9% chance of an upward movement.
Bearish Scenario
To forecast potential downward price movement, I analyzed previous retracement levels, support, and impulse within the symmetrical triangle to determine the downward price target using Fibonacci extensions. The common pullback area might slightly exceed the 1.618 level before a reversal occurs. Based on this, the price before a pullback is projected to be $0.941.
Bullish Scenario
Examining liquidity on the 3-month timeframe reveals the highest concentration around the price level of $1.57, with approximately $88.9 billion in liquidity. As liquidity is often targeted, a "dead cat bounce" (a brief upward movement before a decline) to this level could occur before the symmetrical triangle pattern completes. This theory is supported by the golden ratio retracement level of 0.618, which is drawn based on the highest and lowest points within the symmetrical triangle.
Explore the liquidity here: coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew
Additionally, due to market volatility and further liquidity around $1.034 (with $86.4 billion in liquidity), a reversal towards the upside may be expected once this liquidity is addressed.
The current market trend analysis shows mixed signals across different indicators. While we are challenging the 20-day MA on the daily timeframe, the distance from the 50-day and 100-day EMA confirms the persistence of a downtrend. The Average RSI touching the 50 level, yet staying below it, suggests that the RSI is attempting a reversal but has not yet shifted the overall trend. Conversely, the MACD presents an indication of an uptrend, with the 9-day EMA remaining below the 12-day and 26-day EMAs. However, a contracting histogram and decreasing bar sizes point to weakening momentum and a potential trend reversal back to a downtrend. This confluence of factors highlights the market's current volatility and the potential for a shift in trend direction.
Symmetrical Triangle, FIBs, Dead Cat Bounce and Liquidity.
The main support and resistance levels are found within the symmetrical triangle formed after a previous downtrend. This symmetrical triangle indicates a 91% chance of continued downward movement after exiting the triangle, and a 9% chance of an upward movement.
Bearish Scenario
To forecast potential downward price movement, I analyzed previous retracement levels, support, and impulse within the symmetrical triangle to determine the downward price target using Fibonacci extensions. The common pullback area might slightly exceed the 1.618 level before a reversal occurs. Based on this, the price before a pullback is projected to be $0.941.
Bullish Scenario
Examining liquidity on the 3-month timeframe reveals the highest concentration around the price level of $1.57, with approximately $88.9 billion in liquidity. As liquidity is often targeted, a "dead cat bounce" (a brief upward movement before a decline) to this level could occur before the symmetrical triangle pattern completes. This theory is supported by the golden ratio retracement level of 0.618, which is drawn based on the highest and lowest points within the symmetrical triangle.
Explore the liquidity here: coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMapNew
Additionally, due to market volatility and further liquidity around $1.034 (with $86.4 billion in liquidity), a reversal towards the upside may be expected once this liquidity is addressed.
Disclaimer
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