📊 Wave Count & Channel-Based Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
🔵 Wave 4 Structure (Completed)
Wave 4 developed as a classic ABC corrective structure to the downside.
🔹 Wave A: Initial decline with impulsive characteristics.
🔹 Wave B: Partial retracement with overlapping, corrective traits.
🔹 Wave C: A clean final leg completing at the 1.236 Fibonacci extension of Wave A, which is a common target for a C-wave.
📍 Wave 4 and Wave C terminate exactly at:
1.236 Fib extension, or approximately 0.306 from Wave C's origin — as defined in Elliott Wave theory
.
This matches the expanding channel structure described in the slides:
“Wave 4 can be a flat or zigzag... target range between 23.6% and 50%, but extensions (e.g., 1.236) are valid for C-wave finalization.”
🟡 Current Setup: Anticipating a Wave 5 Move
We now shift from the completed corrective Wave 4 to a new advance phase, expected to unfold as another ABC corrective structure to the upside (per the yellow count):
🔶 Wave A (Expected Now)
The beginning of Wave A is currently developing.
Based on structure, Wave A can unfold as either a 5-wave impulse or a 3-wave zigzag:
"The only micro structure for direct upside continuation I could think of here is that this here was an Awave... this was a Bwave and this is a Cwave... but there is just no five-wave move up right on the smaller time frame" (Video transcription)
Since there’s no confirmed 5-wave count yet, the current move is assumed to be part of Wave A, possibly still forming sub-waves.
🔸 Invalidation and Confirmation Levels
The key upside level to break: $0.9912
A move above this level invalidates the C-wave down scenario and confirms bullish continuation.
From the project video:
“Getting above that level would invalidate the idea that a C-wave to the downside has started...”
Once broken, the target for the current bullish Wave A or full 3rd wave remains unchanged at:
$1.17, previously defined as the next target for bullish continuation
🔺 Channel Structure & Confluence
The contracting diagonal from the start of the chart aligns wave 5 and wave C tops — both terminated at the same horizontal resistance level.
Wave 4's expanding correction supports this shift in volatility before Wave 5 begins, as outlined in the slides:
“Wave 4 can be an expanding triangle or flat... diagonal patterns often create increased volatility before reversal”
✅ Conclusion
Wave 4 has completed via an ABC down, ending at the 1.236 Fib extension of the internal Wave C.
We are now in a potential ABC to the upside, with Wave A currently in formation.
Awaiting confirmation of 5-wave completion in Wave A.
Break above 0.9912 triggers continuation to $1.17 target.
All trendline structures, wave counts, and Fib levels are in strict alignment with the educational material and screenshots.
🔵 Wave 4 Structure (Completed)
Wave 4 developed as a classic ABC corrective structure to the downside.
🔹 Wave A: Initial decline with impulsive characteristics.
🔹 Wave B: Partial retracement with overlapping, corrective traits.
🔹 Wave C: A clean final leg completing at the 1.236 Fibonacci extension of Wave A, which is a common target for a C-wave.
📍 Wave 4 and Wave C terminate exactly at:
1.236 Fib extension, or approximately 0.306 from Wave C's origin — as defined in Elliott Wave theory
.
This matches the expanding channel structure described in the slides:
“Wave 4 can be a flat or zigzag... target range between 23.6% and 50%, but extensions (e.g., 1.236) are valid for C-wave finalization.”
🟡 Current Setup: Anticipating a Wave 5 Move
We now shift from the completed corrective Wave 4 to a new advance phase, expected to unfold as another ABC corrective structure to the upside (per the yellow count):
🔶 Wave A (Expected Now)
The beginning of Wave A is currently developing.
Based on structure, Wave A can unfold as either a 5-wave impulse or a 3-wave zigzag:
"The only micro structure for direct upside continuation I could think of here is that this here was an Awave... this was a Bwave and this is a Cwave... but there is just no five-wave move up right on the smaller time frame" (Video transcription)
Since there’s no confirmed 5-wave count yet, the current move is assumed to be part of Wave A, possibly still forming sub-waves.
🔸 Invalidation and Confirmation Levels
The key upside level to break: $0.9912
A move above this level invalidates the C-wave down scenario and confirms bullish continuation.
From the project video:
“Getting above that level would invalidate the idea that a C-wave to the downside has started...”
Once broken, the target for the current bullish Wave A or full 3rd wave remains unchanged at:
$1.17, previously defined as the next target for bullish continuation
🔺 Channel Structure & Confluence
The contracting diagonal from the start of the chart aligns wave 5 and wave C tops — both terminated at the same horizontal resistance level.
Wave 4's expanding correction supports this shift in volatility before Wave 5 begins, as outlined in the slides:
“Wave 4 can be an expanding triangle or flat... diagonal patterns often create increased volatility before reversal”
✅ Conclusion
Wave 4 has completed via an ABC down, ending at the 1.236 Fib extension of the internal Wave C.
We are now in a potential ABC to the upside, with Wave A currently in formation.
Awaiting confirmation of 5-wave completion in Wave A.
Break above 0.9912 triggers continuation to $1.17 target.
All trendline structures, wave counts, and Fib levels are in strict alignment with the educational material and screenshots.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.