Hello,
📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective
🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days.
However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up.
🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch:
1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13
1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05
1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31
🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway:
To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for:
✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05
✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31
✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97
If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment.
🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario:
Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot.
🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight:
Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications.
The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience.
Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope.
⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism.
💬 CEO Sentiment Matters:
As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted:
“The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.”
With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach.
🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch:
Alphabet: -20% YTD
Tesla: -40% YTD
These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow.
🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions:
Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts.
Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting.
✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War?
💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation.
This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook.
✅ Summary:
We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward.
Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective
🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days.
However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up.
🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch:
1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13
1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05
1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31
🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway:
To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for:
✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05
✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31
✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97
If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment.
🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario:
Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot.
🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight:
Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications.
The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience.
Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope.
⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism.
💬 CEO Sentiment Matters:
As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted:
“The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.”
With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach.
🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch:
Alphabet: -20% YTD
Tesla: -40% YTD
These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow.
🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions:
Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts.
Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting.
✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War?
💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation.
This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook.
✅ Summary:
We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward.
Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Note
🌍 Global Market RecapApril 14–18, 2025
🚨 Trade War Escalates — Volatility Reigns
U.S.–China tensions surged as tariff warfare intensified:
🇨🇳 China: 125% tariffs on U.S. imports
🇺🇸 U.S.: 145% tariffs on Chinese imports
Markets were shaken, but the U.S. dollar showed resilience, proving once again why it's the world’s reserve currency.
🥇 Weekly Movers & Market Reactions
Asset Performance Key Drivers
🟢 USD 🔁 Consolidated after dip Safe-haven flows returning, rate advantage
🟡 Gold ⬆️ New high at $3,357 Inflation hedge, risk-off mood
🔻 Tech Stocks 📉 Pulled back Tariff pressure + earnings risk
🛢️ Oil 🔼 Climbed to $64.70 Iran sanctions outweigh demand concerns
🔻 U.S. Yields 📉 Dropped Growth concerns short-term; USD stays bid
🔎 Headlines Driving Market Sentiment
✅ USD-Supportive Developments:
Fed Survey: Long-term inflation expectations anchored
U.S. Building Permits: +1.6% (vs. -4.0% expected)
China GDP & Retail: Strong, but USD dominance held
Geopolitical Stress: Reinforced USD demand as global safe haven
ECB Cut Rates: Enhances relative USD yield appeal
JPY & EUR Underperforming: Keeps DXY structurally supported
⚠️ Risk-Off Headlines:
China Blocks Boeing Orders: Aviation stocks dive
OPEC & IEA Slash Demand Forecasts: Hit crude sentiment
Fed's Powell: Warns of short-term economic drag
Germany ZEW Sentiment: Misses badly (-14.0 vs. 9.0)
🗓️ Market Action Breakdown
📅 Monday: Inflation Fears Meet USD Dip
Inflation breakevens rise, yields fall
USD dips initially, but strong demand at lower levels
Gold rallies, but USD finds footing above 99.00
📅 Tuesday: Resilience Returns
IEA cuts oil outlook, but dollar holds firm
German sentiment shocks markets — EUR weakens, boosting USD
Trump tweet boosts Nvidia short-term — tech still vulnerable
📅 Wednesday: Maximum Volatility, Minimum Weakness
245% tariffs hit headlines — markets panic
USD spikes intraday before consolidating
DXY finds buyers on risk-off as global investors seek dollar liquidity
📅 Thursday: Dollar Defends the High Ground
ECB cuts by 25bps — EUR pressure fuels USD support
U.S. data mixed, but dollar maintains structure
Gold retreats slightly, USD finds stability near 99.30
💵 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Day Price Action Key Notes
Mon–Tue Dips to 99.07 Profit-taking + global uncertainty
Wed Rebounds USD bid on trade tensions
Thu Holds ~99.30 ECB cut solidifies USD advantage
💡 Bottom Line: The USD held its ground despite volatility, proving its durability in crisis. Strong structural support remains from:
Fed policy divergence
Global yield differentials
Risk-averse capital inflows
🏦 Treasuries vs USD
Yields fell, but bid-to-cover ratios surged at auctions
Investors rotated into USD-denominated assets, not away
Long-term USD outlook remains constructive as growth and inflation reprice
📈 Equity & Commodity Highlights
📉 S&P 500 / Nasdaq
ES dropped to 5,254 before bouncing to 5,355
Tech under pressure (Nvidia -6.9%, AMD -7.35%)
Rotation into value & defensive names seen mid-week
🟡 Gold
Brief spike above $3,357
Pulled back to $3,300 range as USD bid returns late week
🛢️ Oil
Uptrend into $64.70 on geopolitical supply risk
Demand concerns remain, but strong USD caps upside
🧠 Final Thoughts: USD Holding the Line
Despite aggressive risk-off swings and mounting macro stress, the U.S. dollar maintained strength through it all:
✅ Safe haven flows gravitated toward USD
✅ ECB policy shift widened interest rate spread
✅ Global uncertainty keeps USD demand high
✅ Structural dominance remains intact
Bullish USD thesis remains in play, especially as global peers scramble to ease. Dips in DXY continue to attract demand — parity with EUR? Not out of the question.
Note
📈 S&P 500 Rallies Over 2.5% as Earnings and Trade Hopes Lift Markets🔹 S&P 500 Performance
+2.51% gain
Closed at 5,287.76
Part of a broad market rally that saw all 11 sectors advance
Financials and Consumer Discretionary led the charge
🏢 Corporate Earnings Fuel Optimism
73% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten expectations
Q1 earnings growth now forecast at 8.1%, though slightly lower than earlier estimates
Example highlights:
📈 3M Co surged 8.1% after beating profit expectations
📉 Northrop Grumman fell 12.7% after a major earnings miss
📉 RTX tumbled 9.8% after warning of an $850M tariff-related profit hit
🌏 Trade Tensions Ease
Market sentiment improved following comments suggesting U.S.–China trade talks may see some de-escalation
Reduced fear over aggressive tariffs gave investors more confidence
🏛️ Powell Safe, Markets Relieved
President clarified there are no plans to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Viewed as a stabilizing move after prior tensions with the Fed
Trade active
Note
1Y PP Target DoneTrade closed: target reached
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.