Significant Moving Averages positions in the S&P500 weekly chart
The 200-SMA of a weekly chart is probably the main indicator of a secular bull market. It's almost never breakdown, except if a crash happens, and then prices usually come back quickly to the uptrend. Or, the other situation, when an extended bear market begins, and in that case, prices will remain under this MA for a while and the battle around it lasts longer.
A common pattern that happens in the first several months of a bear is that the prices meet the weekly 200-SMA, they then pullback to the 50-SMA and, after that, we finally have the breakdown of the 200-SMA. This can be noticed in some previous bears, like in 2001, 2008 and in the 1970s.
If we take a careful look at the present S&P500 weekly chart, we will see that this pattern has being built in the last months. Prices did approach the 200-SMA, they then did a pullback to the 50-SMA, and now they're facing difficulty to resume the uptrend, the 4200 level is being almost a Great Wall, not to mention that the yield curve has been inverted for 10 months now (this usually predicts a recession within 6 to 18 months). I think that the bear move is the most probable outcome for the next months.
So, for that, I consider that we're now at an excellent point to start trading a major bear move. It is important to try to catch the beginning of such a move so we can collect the greatest possible asymmetry. That’s why in the next few days/weeks I will be very attentive to bearish trading signals in the stocks, and, of course, I will post here any trades that I do.
PS: An spoiler: I’m feeling the energy sector (XOM, CVX) has the potential to give us bears a lot of joy. But that is yet to be confirmed.
A common pattern that happens in the first several months of a bear is that the prices meet the weekly 200-SMA, they then pullback to the 50-SMA and, after that, we finally have the breakdown of the 200-SMA. This can be noticed in some previous bears, like in 2001, 2008 and in the 1970s.
If we take a careful look at the present S&P500 weekly chart, we will see that this pattern has being built in the last months. Prices did approach the 200-SMA, they then did a pullback to the 50-SMA, and now they're facing difficulty to resume the uptrend, the 4200 level is being almost a Great Wall, not to mention that the yield curve has been inverted for 10 months now (this usually predicts a recession within 6 to 18 months). I think that the bear move is the most probable outcome for the next months.
So, for that, I consider that we're now at an excellent point to start trading a major bear move. It is important to try to catch the beginning of such a move so we can collect the greatest possible asymmetry. That’s why in the next few days/weeks I will be very attentive to bearish trading signals in the stocks, and, of course, I will post here any trades that I do.
PS: An spoiler: I’m feeling the energy sector (XOM, CVX) has the potential to give us bears a lot of joy. But that is yet to be confirmed.
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