Three days back I had warned of a crash which did materialise beyond my expectation.
Today again based on the same VP analysis and additionally major trendline break principal I am predicting a 200pnts crash on Monday as we have enter a major low volume region. I hope I am wrong for the sake of all those who are still invested
The market achieved the first target of green trendline break and is now touching the red trendline. Since the price is close to the LVN's another crash is extremely high probability. Had it been near a HVN, I would expect a bounce. The next target coincides with the 2023 Oct bottom. But 4800 (peak of 2022) could offer some support and then 4120
Major trendline break principle is: when a major trendline is broken the price will mirror the rise and fall an equal distance from the breakpoint as from the high to the breakpoint. Check my related post where I show many such cases
Today again based on the same VP analysis and additionally major trendline break principal I am predicting a 200pnts crash on Monday as we have enter a major low volume region. I hope I am wrong for the sake of all those who are still invested
The market achieved the first target of green trendline break and is now touching the red trendline. Since the price is close to the LVN's another crash is extremely high probability. Had it been near a HVN, I would expect a bounce. The next target coincides with the 2023 Oct bottom. But 4800 (peak of 2022) could offer some support and then 4120
Major trendline break principle is: when a major trendline is broken the price will mirror the rise and fall an equal distance from the breakpoint as from the high to the breakpoint. Check my related post where I show many such cases
Trade active
The news are changing every few hours. Trump's top economic adviser says 50 countries have reached out to negotiate tariffs. This news could see market reverse on Monday or so. Too difficult for me to trade this market on either side. Trump advisors have disclosed that Trump will negotiate, this is just is way to shock countries to show he is not making empty threats. Could be some couple of weeks or month before a clearer picture emerges. But one thing is certain: Trump wants to reduce US national debt. Stock valuation is a beneficiary of that debt. If the debt freezes or reduced , irrespective of tariff outcome the stock market valuation will be affected. I don't see market taking the Feb peak back anytime in near future months or years if Trump follows through his debt reduction programme
Trade closed: target reached
SP500 futures opened 200 points lower as predicted and Volatility is around 100 never seen that high. By the time cash markets opens it could come down to 70, my max VIX target. also at 2022 peak. Expect a sharp reversal from here
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.