SPX - Back when I was your age...
This chart represents my entire adult life.
It includes the dot com crash (2000) and the housing market crash (2008).
You don't see exponential growth all that often, and when you do, it's followed by a major reset. To me, this chart represents the astounding technological developments that have occurred since the late 1990s, but it may also reveal some rather extreme market exuberance, which we aren't seeing in other major markets around the world (not to this degree, at least).
I'm not a fan of the national and personal debt, soaring house prices, inflation, money printing, rising dollar value (see DXY), and impending but necessary interest rate hikes I'm seeing from the US.
There is some nice correlation between major support/resistance levels, supply/demand zones (see volume profile), and the fib retracement levels. I wouldn't be shocked if the S&P 500 had a pullback to the 0.5 or 0.618 fib levels. I don't think it would happen quickly, but several 5 to 13 year troughs can be observed in the market's history. We may be setting up for a protracted recession right now.
This could, of course, just be a paradigm shift to unprecedented growth becoming the norm. Time will tell, but this chart gives me pause.
-Exponential growth is unsettling to me.
-There's Bearish Divergence on the MFI, and it's in "overbought" territory.
-A pullback to the 0.5 or 0.618 fib level seems plausible to me.
-The US macroeconomic picture looks pretty grim.
-We've had a good, long run, but that MFI up trend will likely break at some point.
Have fun and be safe.
It includes the dot com crash (2000) and the housing market crash (2008).
You don't see exponential growth all that often, and when you do, it's followed by a major reset. To me, this chart represents the astounding technological developments that have occurred since the late 1990s, but it may also reveal some rather extreme market exuberance, which we aren't seeing in other major markets around the world (not to this degree, at least).
I'm not a fan of the national and personal debt, soaring house prices, inflation, money printing, rising dollar value (see DXY), and impending but necessary interest rate hikes I'm seeing from the US.
There is some nice correlation between major support/resistance levels, supply/demand zones (see volume profile), and the fib retracement levels. I wouldn't be shocked if the S&P 500 had a pullback to the 0.5 or 0.618 fib levels. I don't think it would happen quickly, but several 5 to 13 year troughs can be observed in the market's history. We may be setting up for a protracted recession right now.
This could, of course, just be a paradigm shift to unprecedented growth becoming the norm. Time will tell, but this chart gives me pause.
-Exponential growth is unsettling to me.
-There's Bearish Divergence on the MFI, and it's in "overbought" territory.
-A pullback to the 0.5 or 0.618 fib level seems plausible to me.
-The US macroeconomic picture looks pretty grim.
-We've had a good, long run, but that MFI up trend will likely break at some point.
Have fun and be safe.
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