S&P 500 Monthly - Failure to-date to reach a minimal retracement
Although reaching within a small stone's throw (2641.39 to-date) of the minimal
.382 retracement level, the S&P 500 has yet to reach it … completely. Failure
to reach it (or surpass it, for that matter), would tend to indicate a very
weak market indeed.
Tomorrow will likely mark the start of the 'b' wave retracement (optimistic interpretation).
However, it is too early to pronounce with certainty that it will in fact be a 'b'
in a larger Macro 'a-b-c' correction.
The problem is that so far, with the information we have to-date from the monthly chart,
we can also count this as a '1' down in a possible 5-wave sequence (negative interpretation)
that will comprise a much larger 'a' wave down. If it is a '2' wave, a larger
retracement back towards the high would be not be unexpected but neither a forgone conclusion.
I'm not suggesting you get your crash helmets on by any means but nor do I wish to see
you caught unaware of the 'possibility'.
.382 retracement level, the S&P 500 has yet to reach it … completely. Failure
to reach it (or surpass it, for that matter), would tend to indicate a very
weak market indeed.
Tomorrow will likely mark the start of the 'b' wave retracement (optimistic interpretation).
However, it is too early to pronounce with certainty that it will in fact be a 'b'
in a larger Macro 'a-b-c' correction.
The problem is that so far, with the information we have to-date from the monthly chart,
we can also count this as a '1' down in a possible 5-wave sequence (negative interpretation)
that will comprise a much larger 'a' wave down. If it is a '2' wave, a larger
retracement back towards the high would be not be unexpected but neither a forgone conclusion.
I'm not suggesting you get your crash helmets on by any means but nor do I wish to see
you caught unaware of the 'possibility'.
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