Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets - Day 3
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/24
We started this trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles".
Third day into the week, those indications from our models have played out to the letter! Thank you for our loyal readers who have reached out with words of appreciation! We strive to share what we see through the lens of our models, regardless of what the markets might appear to be doing - some days we hit the nail on the head, and some we might miss the nail altogether, but overall our goal is to help our loyal followers gain alpha in their trading performance paralleling that which is being demonstrated since 2018, Dec in our models' performance history. Let your outperformance not lead to overconfidence, though, for overconfidence is shown to be one of the biggest enemies of even the best traders.
Our stance last few weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". With the debt ceiling drama in high gear, expect the market volatility to continue to increase.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models have initiated the following standing trading plan exactly one week back, on Wed 05/17: "indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187".
This trading plan was triggered at yesterday's close, and now our positional models are short SPX at 4146.33 with a hard stop at 4187 as indicated in our results last night.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/24:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4162, 4150, 4131, 4113, or 4103 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4157, 4141, 4126, or 4109 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4098 with a 6-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4145, and short exits on a break above 4145. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:46pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
We started this trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles".
Third day into the week, those indications from our models have played out to the letter! Thank you for our loyal readers who have reached out with words of appreciation! We strive to share what we see through the lens of our models, regardless of what the markets might appear to be doing - some days we hit the nail on the head, and some we might miss the nail altogether, but overall our goal is to help our loyal followers gain alpha in their trading performance paralleling that which is being demonstrated since 2018, Dec in our models' performance history. Let your outperformance not lead to overconfidence, though, for overconfidence is shown to be one of the biggest enemies of even the best traders.
Our stance last few weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". With the debt ceiling drama in high gear, expect the market volatility to continue to increase.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models have initiated the following standing trading plan exactly one week back, on Wed 05/17: "indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187".
This trading plan was triggered at yesterday's close, and now our positional models are short SPX at 4146.33 with a hard stop at 4187 as indicated in our results last night.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/24:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4162, 4150, 4131, 4113, or 4103 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4157, 4141, 4126, or 4109 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4098 with a 6-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4145, and short exits on a break above 4145. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:46pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
WWW.TRADERSAI.COM
From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
Join our substack: tradersai.substack.com/
From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
Join our substack: tradersai.substack.com/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.