Is This Rally About To Crumble?
Updated
Minor wave 4, if it ended was a dud. But the models indicate Minor wave 5 and the Intermediate A top will come quick. The historical models indicate the market can now top as early as the second hour of trading tomorrow. Minor wave 3 is likely already through wave 3 as seen here:
Based on a hypothetical top of 4384 the path in the image above outlines the rough movement. So far, the waves are underperforming this model which could indicate a market top below 4383.
The overall analysis above is an early projection on Intermediate wave B's movement assuming Minor wave 5 tops at 4381 and within the second hour of trading on Tuesday. If either of these do not prove true, I will update this analysis tomorrow night. A slightly higher or longer duration to the top will likely raise the Intermediate wave B low and possibly extend Intermediate wave B's length.
Strongest model agreement for the wave B bottom rests within 25-29 hours in length. The lowest white rectangle contains the area of most model agreement between 4130-4150. The next strongest is the yellow rectangle which is 4210-4230. The green rectangle is my current target box at 4180-4200. These wave Bs have a history of extending greater than 100% of the preceding A wave which could place the bottom below 4103 although the likelihood is not strong.
Based on the projection of a bottom near 4188 in 27 bars, the Minor waves A, B, and C are roughly placed based on historical data. These are nominal placements and most of the time are too perfect and unlucky to occur as indicated. Normally wave A could be longer and wave B shorter or vice versa.
The final consideration is the location of Intermediate wave B's endpoint. This movement was originally forecasted to take a slower route, however, the weeklong gains of Intermediate wave A are indicating Intermediate wave B can end before the close on Friday. If this occurs, the final end of Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 2 could end before December 1st as seen here:
This would indicate December begins the massive downtrend from ~4430 all the way down to 3400 or lower (over the course of 4-6 months).
I will continue to post updates on this original analysis or in new analyses as needed.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
Based on a hypothetical top of 4384 the path in the image above outlines the rough movement. So far, the waves are underperforming this model which could indicate a market top below 4383.
The overall analysis above is an early projection on Intermediate wave B's movement assuming Minor wave 5 tops at 4381 and within the second hour of trading on Tuesday. If either of these do not prove true, I will update this analysis tomorrow night. A slightly higher or longer duration to the top will likely raise the Intermediate wave B low and possibly extend Intermediate wave B's length.
Strongest model agreement for the wave B bottom rests within 25-29 hours in length. The lowest white rectangle contains the area of most model agreement between 4130-4150. The next strongest is the yellow rectangle which is 4210-4230. The green rectangle is my current target box at 4180-4200. These wave Bs have a history of extending greater than 100% of the preceding A wave which could place the bottom below 4103 although the likelihood is not strong.
Based on the projection of a bottom near 4188 in 27 bars, the Minor waves A, B, and C are roughly placed based on historical data. These are nominal placements and most of the time are too perfect and unlucky to occur as indicated. Normally wave A could be longer and wave B shorter or vice versa.
The final consideration is the location of Intermediate wave B's endpoint. This movement was originally forecasted to take a slower route, however, the weeklong gains of Intermediate wave A are indicating Intermediate wave B can end before the close on Friday. If this occurs, the final end of Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 2 could end before December 1st as seen here:
This would indicate December begins the massive downtrend from ~4430 all the way down to 3400 or lower (over the course of 4-6 months).
I will continue to post updates on this original analysis or in new analyses as needed.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
Note
Here is the look and feel of Minor wave 5 if it finally ended:Wave 3 of 3 indicator aligns with the appropriate spot in wave 3. Minute wave 3 was the shortest in this review, which can happen with more micro waves. Will wait and see what happens tomorrow. There should be no more highs if Intermediate wave B has finally begun. Based on the slightly longer Intermediate wave A, Intermediate wave B could end on Monday instead of this Friday now. Still expecting large downward moves of some sort this week.
Note
Updated path moves the likely low into next week:Note
The sideways movement has struggle to provide direction. Are we done with Intermediate A yet? Did we just finish Minute 2 in Minor A of Intermediate B? Tomorrow will tell. For the latter to possibly hold true we need to drop 50+ points in the first 4 trading hours tomorrow. Sounds like a longshot at this point. Here is the possible setup:Note
New high today, new update here:Next opportunity for a drop is Powell in 20 minutes. Adjusting and ending Intermediate A to the new high at today's open now slides the bottom of Intermediate wave B to next Thursday. Minor wave A is expected to bottom around 4281 before the close tomorrow (which is nearly a 90 point loss in next day of trading, so a drop after Powell's comments would likely get this ball moving). Minor wave B is up to begin Monday and then a decline of more than 120 points or more next Tuesday-Thursday. Let's see if it finally begins today.
Note
Early update, got the decline. But wave 3 of 3 may have ended. If true, doubt wave A bottoms near or below 4280 but we shall see.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
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