Structural Breakdown & Key Observations
Recent High: $6,147.43 (ATH level)
Bearish Momentum Indicators:
MACD: -40.98 (Bearish momentum increasing)
RSI: 45.11 (Weakening strength but not yet oversold)
Volume Increase: $14.18B → Indicates potential distribution.
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Confirmation:
Potential Upthrust & Distribution Phase around 6,147 - 6,000.
If SPX loses 5,700 - 5,600, it will confirm a markdown phase → Bearish.
What Could Trigger a 23% - 36% Crash?
Macroeconomic Risks:
Rising interest rates (Liquidity tightening).
Earnings recession (Corporate profits declining).
Geopolitical risks (Oil, China, etc.).
Bond market stress → Inverted yield curve impact.
Technical Market Triggers:
Break of 5,600 → Strong Bearish Confirmation.
5,400 - 5,200 = Critical "Mid-Crash" Zone → If lost, crash risk accelerates.
VIX spikes above 30+ would confirm a volatility explosion.
✅ Bearish bias confirmed → If SPX breaks below 5,600, crash potential is HIGH.
✅ A 23-36% drawdown aligns with macro & technical risks.
✅ Watch for Fed intervention at ~4,300 - 4,750 levels → This will dictate if the market stabilizes.
🚨 Conclusion:
If SPX holds 5,600, expect a bounce → Otherwise, full markdown into a 23-36% crash is possible.
Key level to watch: 5,400 - 5,200 → This is the TRUE danger zone for a full market selloff.
Recent High: $6,147.43 (ATH level)
Bearish Momentum Indicators:
MACD: -40.98 (Bearish momentum increasing)
RSI: 45.11 (Weakening strength but not yet oversold)
Volume Increase: $14.18B → Indicates potential distribution.
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Confirmation:
Potential Upthrust & Distribution Phase around 6,147 - 6,000.
If SPX loses 5,700 - 5,600, it will confirm a markdown phase → Bearish.
What Could Trigger a 23% - 36% Crash?
Macroeconomic Risks:
Rising interest rates (Liquidity tightening).
Earnings recession (Corporate profits declining).
Geopolitical risks (Oil, China, etc.).
Bond market stress → Inverted yield curve impact.
Technical Market Triggers:
Break of 5,600 → Strong Bearish Confirmation.
5,400 - 5,200 = Critical "Mid-Crash" Zone → If lost, crash risk accelerates.
VIX spikes above 30+ would confirm a volatility explosion.
✅ Bearish bias confirmed → If SPX breaks below 5,600, crash potential is HIGH.
✅ A 23-36% drawdown aligns with macro & technical risks.
✅ Watch for Fed intervention at ~4,300 - 4,750 levels → This will dictate if the market stabilizes.
🚨 Conclusion:
If SPX holds 5,600, expect a bounce → Otherwise, full markdown into a 23-36% crash is possible.
Key level to watch: 5,400 - 5,200 → This is the TRUE danger zone for a full market selloff.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.