Much easier to predict destination than the path traveled

The whole crypto community is so stubbornly bullish, I fear we may have to flush out the entire community before proceeding to the rally we all know is coming.

See in-pic commentary about S&P 500 analog. This would be the worst case scenario.

Additional thoughts:

S&P Monthly was 91 bars peak to peak. Bitcoin Weekly is 30 bars, 1/3 the duration. S&P sold off for 17 bars, so Bitcoin could sell off for ~6 weeks, 1/3 the bar count.
On the upside: the Monthly chart bars do not yet show a high probability of a crash below ~29k. If the bulls can pull off a December Monthly candle that isn't too bearish (e.g. close in upper half of candle range with lower wick), then Q1 could be a chance for price to re-prove the floor above 29k and send us higher from there. This would be consistent with the idea of a ~6-week selloff, the finds a floor and then resumes the bull move
There is absolutely zero price action or technical indication that I see to support a bigger bull move from here. A retest or slight exceeding of ATH is that absolute best case I see for December. My guess is that that is what could happen if we see some major good news come out (e.g. Omicron is no big deal, XRP triumphs over SEC, favorable political/regulatory developments are revealed, etc)

Note

This is my first published idea and I'm not sure how to make the text in the box appear more cleanly in this view, so here is a copy/paste of that content:

It amazes me that I haven't heard one. single. crypto commentator draw a comparison to one of the clearest analogs I've seen in market history: The Monthly S&P 500 stock index in Q4, 2007.

The recent Bitcoin flash crash hasn't yet technically invalidated the uptrend, but a break of the September low would. If this analog held, we would break the ~29k+ low from Summer, 2021 before looking to see if we can find support.

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