Target Reached!
Updated
Incredible run the last few weeks.
This idea is more of a victory lap.
Bear bones are piled so high, their arrogance was their own undoing.
Despite a terrible ER from the tech sector the S&P index broke through the 50 day moving average after a second attempt.
If you held longs through the last 2 weeks, congratulations to you. Remember. ATP (always take profit).
Volatility going into the weekend is high.
Who knows when the bottom will drop out.
Volatility is now mean reverting.
Event news will be important for next direction the market goes.
What's next?
- Monday is JHQDX reset.
I don't expect much more than ~1 deviation from where we are now.
Monday may put a lid on 3900.
- FOMC next week will provide more volatility. 0.75 is already priced in.
Fed sees housing stats plummeting because of the sudden interest rate shock to the system, my thinking is the FED will pivot here.
The housing and car market have come crashing down to the point any lower and they risk a crisis.
Seeing healthy move from speculation to value. (out of the metas into apple and tractor supplies)
- Mid Term Elections
Dealers are short volatility during event. My guess is vol down, stocks up no matter the outcome.
- CPI
I have a strong sense that CPI will come in much lower for Octobers print on Nov 14.
I plan to outline n idea for this.
CPI (Nov 14) will be released before PPI (Nov 15).
This idea is more of a victory lap.
Bear bones are piled so high, their arrogance was their own undoing.
Despite a terrible ER from the tech sector the S&P index broke through the 50 day moving average after a second attempt.
If you held longs through the last 2 weeks, congratulations to you. Remember. ATP (always take profit).
Volatility going into the weekend is high.
Who knows when the bottom will drop out.
Volatility is now mean reverting.
Event news will be important for next direction the market goes.
What's next?
- Monday is JHQDX reset.
I don't expect much more than ~1 deviation from where we are now.
Monday may put a lid on 3900.
- FOMC next week will provide more volatility. 0.75 is already priced in.
Fed sees housing stats plummeting because of the sudden interest rate shock to the system, my thinking is the FED will pivot here.
The housing and car market have come crashing down to the point any lower and they risk a crisis.
Seeing healthy move from speculation to value. (out of the metas into apple and tractor supplies)
- Mid Term Elections
Dealers are short volatility during event. My guess is vol down, stocks up no matter the outcome.
- CPI
I have a strong sense that CPI will come in much lower for Octobers print on Nov 14.
I plan to outline n idea for this.
CPI (Nov 14) will be released before PPI (Nov 15).
Note
I forgot I made the call on OCT 11. 
I wasn't sure about the call until we had a the whipsaw after CPI came in above expected.
Note
Looks like Overnight Reverse Repo is preparing to be purged!Note
Daily JHQDX gamma and delta.Note
Correction for this most recent report.CPI numbers are due tomorrow November 10th.
I looked at the wrong year when getting the dates.
PPI is still Nov 15th as stated above.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.